Movie theaters are in trouble! That’s at least what I’ve been hearing ever since Covid! Ever since that disastrous turn of events that shut down the whole world for a year or two, movie theaters all around the world has seen a significant decline in ticket and concessions sales. That hasn’t stopped Hollywood from doing everything in their power to keep the movie theater going experience alive. Even in the age of streaming, pirating, and Tik Tok, this is a battle that the movie making folks in southern California are willing to fight until they suddenly can’t.
And I don’t think there has been a period of time that has determined just how “well” movie theaters are going throughout the 2020s than this year’s lineup of summer blockbusters. Five years removed of movie theaters being shutdown and two years of infamous strikes, this is probably the most “back to normal” feeling that Hollywood has felt since pre-Covid. If this summer saw yet another underperforming two to three months, then there must come serious questions as to how long movie theaters have before they go extinct.
However, now that summer has come and gone, it’s time to see the results of how all the main feature films did in movie theaters everywhere. And the results are…….complicated.
In case you are wondering how I am judging it, I am gonna look at each major wide release that came out at the start of May to the middle of August. I’m gonna list the film’s budget, how much the film made at the box office, what the projected break even point likely was, how much the film gain in profit, and whether or not it should been seen as a success, flop, or break even point for the studios.
I’m only gonna use math that most tend to use when judging how a film does at the box office. Mostly by taking the budget, times that by 2.5X to cover the whole budget surrounding production and marketing, and seeing how much money it made or lose as a result.
Again, that is not the case for EVERY single one of these movies and this is NOT a direct result as to how the studios view each film from a financial standpoint. This is just my personal guess and opinion as to how each one of these films should be viewed as.
Plus, it’s also worth mentioning that ever since Covid, the definition of “success” is now quite different in the eyes of many producers in Hollywood. Who’s to say that just because a film didn’t do so great in it’s opening two weeks in theaters that the studios sees it as a failure when it became a big hit on digital and streaming? That alone could make it a “success” in the minds of studios.
It is worth remembering that a film’s overall success isn’t just determined based on how it did in theaters but also how it fared in terms of digital, streaming, and physical media sales. Just because not enough people showed up in theaters to give the film profit doesn’t mean people didn’t show it’s support when said film became accessible to all of our home media.
Regardless, I hope you all enjoy this analysis and gives you a good indication of how films are still thriving/struggling in movie theaters!
Thunderbolts*
Budget: $180 Million
Box Office: $382.4 Million
Break Even Point: $450+ Million
Gain/Lose: -$67.6+ Million
Verdict: Flop
Despite the mostly positive reception from fans and critics alike, this could not have been a bigger disappointment at the box office if it tried. Regardless if it has to do with the film starring around D- list MCU characters that most people aren’t familiar or superhero/Marvel fatigue in general, Thunderbolts* most certainly had to pay the price for previous sins surrounding these kind of films. It may have done solid ratings on Disney Plus and did at least kick of the summer movie season better than say…..The Fall Guy last year, but it did follow the tread that most MCU films post-Endgame have suffered from in underperforming box office returns. Between this, Brave New World, and another film to be mentioned later, 2025 has not been so kind to the Marvel Cinematic Universe from a box office standpoint.
Final Destination Bloodlines
Budget: $50 Million
Box Office: $313.9 Million
Break Even Point: $125+ Million
Gain/Loss: +$188.9+ Million
Verdict: Success
The first installment from this long-running franchise since 2011 more than certainly succeeded expectations. Final Destination Bloodlines acted as a nice love letter to the franchise while also acting as a bittersweet epilogue to the amazing career of the late great Tony Todd. I wouldn’t be surprised if we end up getting a sequel 2-3 years time (although hopefully no A.I. Tony Todd is needed). If there is one thing that 2025 has taught theatrically released films, it’s that if you have a low enough budget and give plenty of breathing time in the theaters before dumping it to digital and streaming, you will indeed see some promising theatrical profit in return.
Lilo & Stitch (2025)
Budget: $100 Million
Box Office: $1.037+ Billion
Break Even Point: $250+ Million
Gain/Loss:+$787+ Million
Verdict: Success
Despite all the discourse online about this one and what the true meaning of “ohana” is, it shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone that the 2025 live-action incarnation of Lilo & Stitch was able to be the most successful film of the summer along with Hollywood’s only billion dollar grosser thus far. There was an entire generation of millennials that grew up with the original animated classic and they all most certainly showed up during Memorial Day weekend to take their kids to experience the inferior version of one of Disney’s very best films in their history. At least it’s not……whatever the hell Snow White was. It’s because of this, I wouldn’t be surprised if Disney changes their mind on bringing Rapunzel and Elsa to the live-action screens in the near future.
Mission: Impossible- The Final Reckoning
Budget: $300-400 Million
Box Office: $598.8+ Million
Break Even Point: $750+ Million to $1+ Billion
Gain/Loss: -$151.2-$401.2+ Million
Verdict: Flop
There was a lot going against Tom Cruise’s last hurrah with his nearly three decade long action franchise and unfortunately, The Final Reckoning was no match for it. Suffering from a bloated budgeted, going head-to-head with Lilo & friends on Memorial Day weekend, and being part of a franchise that arguably peak seven years ago with Mission: Impossible- Fallout, it’s clear that audiences are ready to move on from Tom Cruise damn near killing himself for our amusement. I guess we’ll have to see if Top Gun 3 will be able to replicate the success of Maverick. If not, then we might have to accept that Tom Cruise is not the “Hollywood Jesus” that his ego claims himself to be and that the G.O.A.T. may indeed be washed.
Karate Kid Legends
Budget: $45 Million
Box Office: $115.8+ Million
Break Even Point: $112.5+ Million
Gain/Loss:+$3.3+ Million
Verdict: Broke Even
You all COMPLETELY forgot this movie came out, didn’t you? As a matter of fact, most of you probably didn’t even know this movie existed. This odd culmination of the Karate Kid franchise up to this point clearly failed to set the world on fire but thanks to it’s shocking low budget, it might’ve done just enough to not be a complete failure. And it most certainly probably was able to pick up any remaining losses with it’s digital release. I don’t know what this means for the future for this franchise but at least Karate Kid: Legends can rest easily knowing it’s far from the biggest failure to come out this summer, even if it’s easily among the most forgettable movies of the year.
Ballerina
Budget: $90+ Million
Box Office: $137.2+ Million
Break Even Point: $225+ Million
Gain/Loss:-$87.8+ Million
Verdict: Flop
2025 has not been so kind to Lionsgate and Ballerina was certainly no exception. Despite the presence of Keanu Reeves himself and the positive response from critics and fans, this John Wick spin-off failed to impress at the box office. Perhaps had the budget remain closer to the original John Wick than John Wick: Chapter 4, this could’ve managed to squeeze a profit (similar to a similar female-lead action flick in Atomic Blonde) but not with it’s 90+ million dollar budget (which a good chunk of it most certainly stemmed from reshoots). Whether it’s due to the franchise finally running on fumes or audience suffering from “girl boss” fatigue, Ballerina fell way below expectations, to the point where future John Wick spin-offs and perhaps even a John Wick 5 itself might just be up in the air.
How To Train Your Dragon (2025)
Budget: $150 Million
Box Office: $635.5+ Million
Break Even Point: $375+ Million
Gain/Loss:+$260.5+ Million
Verdict: Success
DreamWorks has finally threw their hat in the ring with live-action remakes and just like with Disney themselves, while the quality may not talk the talk, the box office results can certainly walk the walk. How To Train Your Dragon (2025) was able to capture the hearts of families and mainstream audiences in similar ways that the original animated version did back in 2010 along with the better live-action remakes from Disney (or at least the ones that were able to make a billion dollars). With the success of this film and a sequel in the works, I wouldn’t be surprised to see our favorite ogre and kung panda warrior getting their live-action treatment in the near future. But hey, if it helps cover for any potential loss that The Bad Guys 2 might have, then it might certainly be worth it!
Materialists
Budget: $20 Million
Box Office: $103.5+ Million
Break Even Point: $50+ Million
Gain/Loss:+$53.5+ Million
Verdict: Success
And who says original rom-coms are dead?! Despite the rather mixed audience response, Materialists was able to act as the most successful rom-com in recent memory that does NOT start Glen Powell and Sydney Sweeney. And as much as everyone and their mother claim to be sick and tired of seeing Pedro Pascal everywhere, he can certainly help carry an original project such as this, along with Chris Evans and Dakota Johnson of course. Not much to say here than yeah, this did quite well at the theaters for this kind movie and A24 should most certainly see this as a success.
28 Years Later
Budget: $60 Million
Box Office: $151.2+ Million
Break Even Point: $150+ Million
Gain/Loss:+$1.2+ Million
Verdict: Broke Even
This divisive sequel/part one of a two-part story did just enough to break even at the box office but not much else. Perhaps had 28 Years Later been more positively received from mainstream audiences and/or it wasn’t relying on the two-part gimmick, this could’ve done much better. But nevertheless, it did at least enough to justify a Part Two getting made, which can hopefully pick up any sort of financial slack that this film might’ve left behind.
Elio
Budget: $150-200+ Million
Box Office: $154+ Million
Break Even Point: $375 to $500+ Million
Gain/Loss: -$221 to $346 Million
Verdict: Flop
Just a summer after Inside Out 2 gave Pixar the smash box office hit they desperately needed, Elio took any sort of momentum that Pixar might’ve possibly gained and COMPLETELY tripped over itself. From a combination of lackluster marketing, trouble from behind-the-scenes/development, a bloated budget, and Disney doing everything in their power to erase this movie from existence, is it any surprised this film ended up being perhaps the biggest flop of the the summer and possibly the year? Maybe I should’ve known better after doing my summer box office movie predictions but I thought after Inside Out 2, people were ready to hop back on board with Pixar with seeing their film in theaters. Looks like I was dead wrong in that regard and man…….I wish I wasn’t!
F1
Budget: $200-300+ Million
Box Office: $626+ Million
Break Even Point: $500-750 Million
Gain/Loss:+$126+ to -$124 Million
Verdict: Success
There are probably many folks out there that are shocked to see this as being labeled as a success due to the film’s massive budget but F1‘s “success” or “failure” is much more complicated than most. First off, this is a partnership between Apple+ and Warner Bros. Apple was the one that funded the movie and would take credit for the success when the film arrives on digital and streaming, while Warner Bros was able to gain the profit from theater showings. Plus, this wasn’t so much about helping out theaters than it was about promoting the sport of F1 racing all across the world! Take all those factors in mind along with the fact that a movie in 2025 was able to make $600+ million that is NOT a superhero film, live-action remake, video game adaption, or an anime, F1 was most certainly a breakout success that helped add to a terrific year that Warner Bros has had in theaters!
M3GAN 2.0
Budget: $15-25+ Million
Box Office: $39.1+ Million
Break Even Point: $37.5-62.5 Million
Gain/Loss:+$1.6 to -25 Million
Verdict: Flop
This has to be the most BAFFLING failure of this summer! Not because it’s a shock that it bombed because the movie itself lacking quality compared to the first but because some of the most baffling decisions made from a business standpoint. From dumping the movie in the middle of summer when the original did just swell in January 2023 to advertising it as a sci-fi comedy instead of sci-fi horror, it’s like Blumhouse was doing everything in their power to ensure this would be a failure. If that was the case, then they MORE than certainly succeeded.
Jurassic World Rebirth
Budget: $180-225+ Million
Box Office: $867+ Million
Break Even Point: $450-562.5+ Million
Gain/Loss:+$305-418+ Million
Verdict: Success
Here is what was wildly considered the most surprising box office success story of Summer 2025 and…..I don’t necessarily know why. While the Jurassic Park franchise might’ve no longer be the billion dollar juggernaut that previous installments were, Rebirth did prove that people still love seeing dinosaurs on the big screen. And this time around they got to see dinosaurs AND Scarlett Johansson on the big screen! What better winning combo than that! Even if this franchise should’ve ended by now, don’t be surprised if Universal wants to keep the Jurassic ball rolling after the monster smash hit of the summer. Again, this might’ve not been a billion dollar gross but it did more than enough to be considered a success!
Superman (2025)
Budget: $225+ Million
Box Office: $615.7+ Million
Break Even Point: $562.5+ Million
Gain/Loss:+$53.2+ Million
Verdict: Success
Welp, here’s the most hotly debated success/failure story of the summer! Even though Superman (2025) has gained at least $53+ million based on traditional projections (or more according to Variety), there has been a serious argument that James Gunn’s take on Superman actually underperformed and even a failure. If we look at it through the mindset of Warner Bros back in 2013, you might have an argument. But in 2025, if we take the words from CEO David Zaslav and crew, it seems like they have much more manageable expectations and just needed to do enough to make a profit and do well in digital and physical sales to be considered a success. They know they can’t turn everything around in one movie like they thought they could a decade ago and are willing to be more patient in regaining the mainstream audience trust. Looking it that way, Superman (2025) was indeed a success. Sorry Snyder cult!
I Know What You Did Last Summer (2025)
Budget: $18+ Million
Box Office: $64.7+ Million
Break Even Point: $45+ Million
Gain/Loss:+$19.7+ Million
Verdict: Success
This might’ve been controversial among die-hard fans and mainstream audiences but thanks to a super low budget of just 18 million dollars, I Know What You Did Last Summer (2025) did good enough to at least guarantee it to be a success. Once again, the lower the budget, the easier it is for your film to be a profit in theaters. More studios should take notes on that, especially with what has come from the horror genre this year!
Smurfs (2025)
Budget: $58+ Million
Box Office: $120+ Million
Break Even Point: $145+ Million
Gain/Loss:-$15+ Million
Verdict: Flop
No one was asking for a new iteration of the Smurfs in 2025! Not kids! Not families! Not anyone! And they were ESPECIALLY not asking for a new iteration with Rihanna, James Corden, or Jimmy Kimmel (Although, PRO-FREEDOM OF SPEECH!)! Literally no one but Paramount should be shocked at the fact that this bombed! And even then, I think deep down they aren’t shocked at all either!
The Fantastic Four- First Steps
Budget: $200+ Million
Box Office: $521.5+ Million
Break Even Point: $500+ Million
Gain/Loss:+$21.5 Million
Verdict: Broke Even
This might’ve been the highest grossing MCU film of the year but it still disappointed greatly, compared to the highest grossing MCU films of prior years. This will likely mark the first year that an MCU film does NOT make it to the top 10 highest grossing overall films of the year since 2011. The Fantastic Four has certainly been more appealing to die-hard Marvel and comic fans than it did the mainstream audience but you can’t help but wonder how much better this would’ve done pre-2019. If adjusted projections are to go by, The Fantastic Four-First Steps will likely be the one MCU film to break even in 2025…..but that’s it. And for Marvel Studios standards, that’s quite underwhelming!
The Naked Gun (2025)
Budget: $42+ Million
Box Office: $102+ Million
Break Even Point: $105+ Million
Gain/Loss: -$3+ Million
Verdict: Broke Even
If we are talking about how much the 2025 incarnation of the The Naked Gun did in theaters, it might’ve fell just short of reaching it’s break even point. However, with making up any potential revenue loss with it’s release to digital and soon streaming, I would believe Paramount was more satisfied with how this one did than say……Mission: Impossible. I don’t think this did enough to “save” comedies or resurrected a genre of films that Hollywood has been quite picky to tackle for the better part of a decade but for what it’s worth, I believe this did just fine.
The Bad Guys 2
Budget: $80+ Million
Box Office: $225+ Million
Break Even Point: $200+ Million
Gain/Loss:+$25+ Million
Verdict: Broke Even
This one is quite a tongue twister. Largely impacted by a slew of summer movie competition along with pulling the trigger to the digital release so quicky, The Bad Guys 2 is more likely unable to match the success that the original did. However, due to working at a sizable budget and having solid digital sales thus far, it seems like it did just enough to match it’s break even point. While we might still get a third movie sometime in the future, I don’t think The Bad Guys franchise has become the success story that DreamWorks had envisioned it being, especially compared to the likes of Shrek, Kung Fu Panda, and How To Train Your Dragon. In that regards, it’s quite a same because this has been a damn good animated series of films thus far! Fingers crossed that a third movie gets made!
Freakier Friday
Budget: $42-45+ Million
Box Office: $152.3+ Million
Break Even Point: $105-112.5+ Million
Gain/Loss:+$39.8-47.3+ Million
Verdict: Success
I still don’t know why this was even made but thanks to it’s lower budget and modest box office projections, Jamie Lee Curtis and Lindsey Lohan’s Disney team-up that was 22 years in the making was able to exceed expectations without breaking any new ground. I guess it helps to have a sizeable budget and leaving plenty of breathing room between theater showings and digital/physical releases. If only Disney can get that same memo with everything else they do in the way they did with Freakier Friday.
Weapons
Budget: $38+ Million
Box Office: $266.4+ Million
Break Even Point: $95+ Million
Gain/Loss:+$170+ Million
Verdict: Success
Similar to Sinners and Final Destination: Bloodlines, Weapons was able to prove once again that you can win big in horror by playing small. This genuinely scary crowd pleaser was able to make the best with it’s modest budget to craft a smash hit, standing alongside with plenty of original horror films in recent memory. Even with what was a rather crowded area of theatrically released films at the time it came out, this was able to stand out swiftly to be a nice success story. Now let’s just see if director Zach Cregger can say the same for Resident Evil next year!
Nobody 2
Budget: $25+ Million
Box Office: $39.4+ Million
Break Even Point: $62.5+ Million
Gain/Loss:-$23.1+ Million
Verdict: Flop
Here’s a movie that did so poorly in it’s time in theaters that the studios pulled it completely from the big screens after five weeks and just dumped it to digital. To be fair, this is a rare case that I actually can’t blame the studio for making that movie so quickly. Whether it’s because too much time has passed since the original or it just flew under the radar for a lot of people, the sequel to Bob Odenkirk’s action franchise just did not get the same love and support that the original did (and even then, that didn’t really set the world of fire either). Between Nobody 2, The Final Reckoning, and last year’s flops of Monkey Man, Boy Kills World, and The Fall Guy, perhaps there isn’t as much of a crave for “masculine” action heroes that conservatives and alt-right online influencers would have you believe.
When you take all the box office results into account with the ways that most film analysts use to determine if the movie is a success or failure, this summer has had a total of nine movies that were successes, seven movies that were failures, and about five movies that did enough to break even.
What that tells me is that movie theaters are still not in a great spot but they are NOT ready to die out quite yet. While it’s a shame that certain films like The Fantastic Four- First Steps and Mission: Impossible– The Final Reckoning didn’t become the smash hits that were expected and that other films like Thunderbolts* and Elio ended up being massive bombs, this summer did show that there is at least a want and need for plenty of variety within theatrically released films.
You have live-action remakes, you have dinosaur action, you have horror thrills, you have action-comedies, you have rom-coms, and you have sports films! All of which were able to gain an audience in theaters and many of which were able to take some of the spotlight away from the kind of films that have dominated theaters in recent memory, particularly superheroes and video game adaptions.
That’s why I’m not too worried about the fact that a superhero film might not crack the top 10 of the year or that anime and re-releases might be taken more theater screenings! It doesn’t mean one genre is dying, it means more genres are EMERGING! The more genres of films that is resurrected and emerged, the more demographics are eager to see film in theaters, and the more money studios and theaters make! If Hollywood wants to keep theaters alive, THIS is the way to do it!
Because of that and more, I still believe there is still hope for movie theaters! There are still plenty of changes that need to be made (lower ticket prices/concessions, longer theatrical windows, longer time waiting for films to come to digital/streaming, more movie subscriptions/clubs….etc.) but if studios keep going with this direction while being able to contain a sustainable budget with most big movies they released, there might still be hope for movie theaters yet!
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