Tag: summer-movies

Summer 2026 Box Office Breakdown

AdamLeave a comment

Movie theaters are back! Or that’s at least what I’ve been hearing for the past month or two! Ever since that disastrous turn of events that shut down the whole world for a year or two, movie theaters all around the world has seen a significant decline in ticket and concessions sales. That hasn’t stopped Hollywood from doing everything in their power to keep the movie theater going experience alive. Even in the age of streaming, pirating, and Tik Tok, this is a battle that the movie making folks in southern California (and other parts of the world) are willing to fight until they suddenly can’t.

And I don’t think there has been a period of time that has determined just how “well” movie theaters are going throughout the 2020s than this year’s lineup of summer blockbusters, especially since we are entering the latter half of the 2020s. Six years removed of movie theaters being shutdown and two years of infamous strikes, this is probably the most “back to normal” feeling that Hollywood has felt since pre-Covid. If this summer saw yet another underperforming two to three months, then there must come serious questions as to how long movie theaters have before they go extinct.

However, now that summer of 2026 has come and gone, it’s time to see the results of how all the main feature films did in movie theaters everywhere. And the results are…….surprisingly positive. While there are certainly some baffling duds that do raise cause for concerns for certain IPs, there were plenty of notable successes that were so successful that it practically made up for all those duds. Because of that and more, 2026 is looking to be hands down the best year for movie theaters since 2019! And for the first time since Covid, that actually is saying something!

In case you are wondering how I am judging this data, I am gonna look at a chunk of wide releases that came out at the start of May to the near the end of August. I’m gonna list the film’s budget, how much the film made at the box office, what the projected break even point likely was, how much the film gain in profit, and whether or not it should been seen as a success, flop, underperformance, or break even point for the studios.

I’m only gonna use math that most tend to use when judging how a film does at the box office. Mostly by taking the budget, times that by 2.5X to cover the whole budget surrounding production and marketing, and seeing how much money it made or lose as a result.

Again, that is not the case for EVERY single one of these movies and this is NOT a direct result as to how the studios view each film from a financial standpoint. This is just my personal guess and opinion as to how each one of these films should be viewed as.

Plus, it’s also worth mentioning that ever since Covid, the definition of “success” is now quite different in the eyes of many producers in Hollywood. Who’s to say that just because a film didn’t do so great in it’s opening two weeks in theaters that the studios sees it as a failure when it became a big hit on digital and streaming? That alone could make it a “success” in the minds of studios.

It is worth remembering that a film’s overall success isn’t just determined based on how it did in theaters but also how it fared in terms of digital, streaming, and physical media sales. Just because not enough people showed up in theaters to give the film profit doesn’t mean people didn’t show it’s support when said film became accessible to all of our home media.

Regardless, I hope you all enjoy this analysis and gives you a good indication of how films are still thriving/struggling in movie theaters!

The Devil Wears Prada 2

Budget: $100 Million

Box Office: $692.8+ Million

Break Even Point: $250+ Million

Gain/Lose: $442.3+ Million in Profit

Verdict: Hit

While hardcore fans have certainly debated the quality of this 20 years in the making sequel since it’s release, there’s no denying the massive cult following the original film has gained since 2006. And it’s that exact cult following that showed up in drones to support yet another adventure with Meryl Streep, Anne Hathaway, Emily Blunt, and Stanley Tucci. Whether it’s because of it’s timely story of AI and digital taking over the fashion industry or just wanting to spend more time with these characters, The Devil Wears Prada 2 was an absolute slam dunk for both Disney and 20th Century Fox. I wouldn’t be shocked if a third film is being discussed right at this very moment.

Mortal Kombat II

Budget: $80 Million

Box Office: $129+ Million

Break Even Point: $200+ Million

Gain/Lose: $71+ Million Loss

Verdict: Flop

Although this was certainly an improvement over the 2021 original (which grossed $80 million when over half of the movie theaters around the world was close), I doubt it’s enough for Mortal Kombat II to be considered a success in the eyes of Warner Bros. Whether it’s because of the multiple delays or divisive reception that the first one got among critics and fans alike, Mortal Kombat II just couldn’t seem to win over folks, despite it being more positively received than the original. Unless digital and streaming can come in to save the day, I would not expect a third film to be released anytime soon.

Obsession

Budget: $750,000

Box Office: $750,000

Box Office: $505.7+ Million

Break Even Point: $1.875+ Million

Gain/Lose: $493+ Million in Profit

Verdict: Hit

The breakout hit of the summer that is still leaving the higher ups at Hollywood shaking their heads, wondering how in the world they did NOT see this coming?! A supernatural horror film that is fully original being made by a YouTuber that hardly anyone in the industry heard about and feature a cast of actors and actresses that hardly anyone in the industry heard about, ending up being one of the most shocking success stories in modern film history! Obsession was able to defy any sort of expectations that might’ve been leveled against it and then some! Throughout the summer, it went toe-to-toe with the likes of Star Wars, He-Man, DC Comics, Disney Live-Action, and the great Steven Spielberg…..and actually WON! Congrats to Curry Baker, Inde Navarrette, and everyone involved with Obsession, enjoy this glorious success, you deserve every bit of it!

The Mandalorian & Grogu

Budget: $165 Million

Box Office: $345.7+ Million

Break Even Point: $412.5+ Million

Gain/Lose: $66.8+ Million Loss

Verdict: Underperformed

I called it at the beginning of this year and I (unfortunately) was completely right! It’s still baffling that Disney and Lucasfilm thought that Star Wars’ triumphant return to cinema should consist of three to four episodes of a Disney Plus series that most people stop caring about over half a decade ago. With the near non-existence marketing and a very vague plot synopsis, The Mandalorian & Grogu was more in-line with the The Clone Wars animated film from 2008 than any of the “official” Star Wars films (And that’s totally NOT because both films where originally meant to be several episodes of their own respective shows and JUST so happens to have Jabba the Hutt’s son in it). I’m sure Disney Plus numbers and merchandise will be enough to save this from being a complete financial disaster in the eyes of stock holders but the fact it’s solely reliant on that is a good indicator just where Star Wars is right now. Let’s hope that Shawn Levy and Ryan Gosling are up to the task of restoring the legacy of Star Wars next year with Starfighter or else the Dave Filoni era of Lucasfilm could be over before it even begins.

Backrooms

Budget: <$10 Million

Box Office: $394.1+ Million

Break Even Point: <$25+ Million

Gain/Loss: $371.5+ Million in Profit

Verdict: Hit

Another surprise “original” hit that no one saw coming. Granted, unlike with Obsession, Backrooms already did have an established fanbase, as it is based on a series of web shorts on YouTube created by director Kane Parsons. However, that still doesn’t change the fact that it was still able to stand strong on it’s own and even surpassed many other established IPs this summer that I’ve already mentioned. Perhaps if the audience’s reception was on the level of Obsession, it might’ve been able to gain enough legs to cross the 400 million dollar mark. Even so, another terrific success story that will surely usher in a new era of filmmaking among social media influencers, for better or worse (most certainly worse)!

Scary Movie (2026)

Budget: $30 Million

Box Office: $231.4+ Million

Break Even Point: $75+ Million

Gain/Loss: $156.4+ Million in Profit

Verdict: Hit

The return to form horror spoof franchise was able to make it’s 13-year long return look pretty easy. Despite the negative reviews and divisive fan reception, it was still able to make it’s money back and then some, becoming the highest grossing Scary Movie sequel to date (inflation aside). Between this, last year’s The Naked Gun, and the upcoming Grown Ups 3, it looks like we are now seeing the doors being open for more raw horror/anti-woke/politically incorrect comedies for the immediate future. And I’m sure it will absolutely NOT get old and tiresome very fast!

Masters of the Universe

Budget: $170+ Million

Box Office: $114+ Million

Break Even Point: $285+ Million

Gain/Loss: $171+ Million Loss

Verdict: Flop….but

In almost ALL circumstances, Masters of the Universe (2026) would be seen as an absolute bomb, barley able to make pass just a $100 million globally despite it’s $175 million budget and being based of the He-Man IP. However, when it comes to Amazon MGM and Mattel, they are clearly looking more at how the film does in terms of streaming and merchandise numbers. And thus far, Masters of the Universe (2026) has been a MASSIVE hit for both Amazon Prime AND for Mattel toys/action figures! Similar to last year’s F1, the purpose of the film’s existence isn’t so much to make all the money in the world at the box office but more to introduce He-Man to a new generation, hoping that the film itself will be remember upon leaving movie theaters everywhere and gain new fans among younger demographics. And if the strong numbers for Amazon Prime and Mattel are any indication, we MIGHT just see Masters of the Universe continue in some way, shape, or form in the future. Again, if we are looking at just box office numbers, it’s an absolute flop! But whether or not Amazon and Mattel both feel that way remains to be seen!

Disclosure Day

Budget: $115 Million

Box Office: $241+ Million

Break Even Point: $287.5+ Million

Gain/Loss: $46.5+ Million Loss

Verdict: Underperformed

Despite the marketing painting this as a glorious return to form for Stephen Spielberg and the OG “disaster” film of the summer, Disclosure Day most certainly didn’t live up to the box office projections that Universal thought they were getting. Although it did get decent legs in the latter half of it’s theater run (most likely due to it being the only main “adult” film released until The Odyssey), it’s polarizing response from audiences clearly didn’t help, with many feeling like the film didn’t live up to it’s title. Even as someone that is a strong defender of the film, I definitely understand those that want a film to be a complete package with no loose ends whatsoever would be disappointed by it. There could be a chance that this film will find it’s audience in terms of digital and streaming but I’m sure Universal and Spielberg themselves thought that THIS would be the breakout original hit of the summer…..and it just wasn’t.

Toy Story 5

Budget: $250 Million

Box Office: $1.136+ Billion

Break Even Point: $625+ Million

Gain/Loss: $545+ Million in Profit

Verdict: Hit

Despite everyone and their mom constantly claiming that this series should have ended after 3 until they are blue in the face, that didn’t stop Toy Story 5 for being yet another $1 billion grosser for Mickey Mouse and crew, performing as the highest grossing Toy Story film to date (Again, inflation aside!). It’s timely plot involving tablets and electronics taking over the lives of modern children most certainly played a benefit to the audience’s glowing response to it, along with seeing our cowgirl Jessie getting more screentime than last time out. And unlike another big animated film released this summer, it had a decent seven-year long wait that kept enough distance from audience to justify another Toy Story adventure that they would want to see. Post-Toy Story 3 naysayers be damned, I’m sure Disney and Pixar will be coming out with a Toy Story 6 with Buzz Lightyear front in center sooner than you would think (Just don’t make it like Lightyear, please!).

Supergirl

Budget: $170-$186 Million

Box Office: $126.4+ Million

Break Even Point: $425-$465+ Million

Gain/Loss: $298.6-$338.6+ Million in Loss

Verdict: Flop

Another big flop that I (unfortunately) saw coming from a mile away. From it’s questionable release date to it’s lackluster trailers to it’s nightmare PR, Supe’s cousin had a hard time finding any sort of audience in the theaters this summer. As I sadly predicted, Supergirl was the most heartbreaking bombs of the summer, falling into the same “female-led movies made for men” wheelhouse with 2024’s Furiosa and last summer’s Ballerina, only not having any fandom goodwill attached to it. Mr. Gunn and company better hope that Man of Tomorrow delivers next summer or else this new DC Universe might just be over before it even got a chance to settle in, (and that’s not even mentioning the GIANT elephant in the room that’s about to swallow Warner Bros Discovery up).

Jackass: Best and Last

Budget: $10 Million

Box Office: $27.8+ Million

Break Even Point: $25+ Million

Gain/Loss: $2.8+ Million in Profit

Verdict: Broke Even

For a movie that had little to no marketing and was basically thrown into movie theaters at the very last second, this is about as good as it could get. I don’t know if this has to do with Paramount realizing the shift away from streaming and shift towards movie theaters or Mr. Ellison proving his point on releasing up to 30 films a year once he acquires you know what, I’m at least glad that Johnny Knoxville and friends were able to get Jackass: Best and Last in the seats for their last hooray! If only they actually bother to market the damn thing and over half of the movie wasn’t just deleted stunts from the previous movie! Only then, this could’ve ended up being among the highest grossing Jackass films of all time.

Minions & Monsters

Budget: $85+ Million

Box Office: $514+ Million

Break Even Point: $212.5+ Million

Gain/Loss: $301.5+ Million in Profit

Verdict: Hit

Yes, this will (likely) be the lowest grossing installment in the Despicable Me franchise by quite a big margin and was clearly affected by circumstances such as the World Cup, America’s 250th birthday, the massive heat wave, and potential audience fatigue of those walking, talking corn puffs. However, thanks to it’s very tight budget and billions of dollars earned in merchandising, Minions & Monsters still made more than enough to be considered a hit. However, considering this is the SEVENTH overall installment with the Minions since 2010 and the THIRD installment that we have gotten with them since 2022, it might be time for Illumination to take a break with their beloved/infamous mascots and revisited some of their other properties. And considering that Universal are dipping their toes back to the wells of Shrek and The Secret Life of Pets, it seems they might be doing just that. This is STILL a success but it might be a little while before we are reunited with Gru and the minions once again.

Moana (2026)

Budget: $250+ Million

Box Office: $315+ Million

Break Even Point: $625+ Million

Gain/Loss: $310+ Million Loss

Verdict: Flop

I don’t know if the motive to do a live-action remake of a Disney animated film that came out just ten years ago had to do with corporate greed or The Rock needing a quick hit after his attempt at jumpstarting DC Comics (Black Adam) and going for an Oscar (The Smashing Machine) fell flat but Moana (2026) could have NOT made the higher ups at Disney particularly happy regardless of which way you look at it. Even in a crowded summer of family friendly blockbusters, I don’t think people expected for this to fail THIS hard! Maybe it was just way too early to do a live-action remake of Moana OR the audience fatigue with these live-actions remakes are settling in with Lilo & Stitch (2025) being just a fluke?! Regardless, Disney might need to start carefully considering which animated classics they chose to do a live-action remake for to avoid big losses like this for the future.

Evil Dead Burn

Budget: $20 Million

Box Office: $72.3+ Million

Break Even Point: $50+ Million

Gain/Loss: $22.3 Million in Profit

Verdict: Broke Even

Releasing a horror film like this in the middle of summer is still a baffling choice in my mind, but that didn’t stop Evil Dead Burn from doing JUST enough to keep it from being a total failure. Even with the lack of marketing or the possible franchise indifference now, I don’t think Warner Bros should be too upset with how this did, especially compared to their other failures in 2026. A Spring or Fall release date might have faired this much better but considering this was released under the worst circumstances, this was still good enough.

The Odyssey

Box Office: $250 Million

Box Office: $1.555+ Billion

Break Even Point: $625+ Million

Gain/Loss: $930+ Million in Profit

Verdict: Hit

Perhaps the profit numbers are a bit exaggerated with extra marketing and budget numbers probably added in there, but make no mistake, The Odyssey is a MASSIVE hit! The haters can point to the inflated numbers and the amount of “ghost” seats in the theaters all they want but you would be lying through your damn teeth if you claim that Universal is NOT happy with the results for The Odyssey. Christopher Nolan sought out to make a definite version of The Odyssey that will go down in history as one of the greatest cinematic achievements of the decade and he did just that. What’s even more crazy is that it is STILL selling out seats over two months later, which can push this to $1.7+ Billion total by the time it finally gets let out of theaters. Between this and the next movie I’m about to talk about, this was the one-two knock out punch that the summer movie season DESPERATELY needed to save any kind of face from it’s overall shortcomings! Rock on, Nolan!

Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Box Office: $225+ Million

Box Office: $2.335+ Billion

Break Even Point: $562.5+ Million

Gain/Loss: $1.772+ Billion

Verdict: Hit

Let’s be honest, NONE of us saw this coming! Sure, we all knew that Spidey was gonna be an easy billion dollar hit but I don’t think anyone expected THIS! Not only managing to outgrossing one of the most successful films of all time in No Way Home (which included THREE Spider-Men and all of their memorable villains) but it’s able to stand up their with the likes of Avatar, Titanic, and Avengers: Endgame, by being one of the ONLY two billion dollar grosses of all time. Spider-Man: Brand New Day was able to deliver the right amount of twists and turns and surprises that are to be found here, all which work as not just fun fan service and crowd pleasing moments but also plays actual, legit importance of a role to the film’s overall themes and messages. You have the Punisher, the Incredible Hulk, *SPOILER ALERT* and Yelena, A.K.A. the new Black Widow, that are present and accounted for here. Yes, I know the buzz killers out there will bring up inflation and the ACTUAL number of ticket prices but come on, regardless if this movie came out in 2026 or 2006, this is still an INCREDIBLY achievement. Tom Holland and Zendaya better put their retirement plans on acting on hold because with the way things are going on, Sony and Marvel are gonna make them do their roles until they are 90! (*whispers* UNTIL YOU ARE 90! *whispers*)

The End of Oak Street

Budget: $80-92 Million

Box Office: $107+ Million

Break Even Point: $200-$230+ Million

Gain/Lose: -$93-$123+ Million

Verdict: Flop

The verdict here is quite a head scratcher. Considering it’s overall positive reviews, it’s superbly talented cast, and tackling a genre sandbox most mainstream moviegoers absolute LOVE in dinosaurs, The End of Oak Street should have been an easy mini-win. Whether it’s because of it’s high budget or controversy surrounding the film’s AI-generated marketing, it seems like dinos don’t sell to the audience unless it’s related to something Jurassic Park or World. Maybe it will gain enough legs down the road and streaming numbers to pump it up to the break even point, but yeah, quite disappointing.

Insidious: Out of the Further

Budget: $18 Million

Box Office: $110.3+ Million

Break Even Point: $45+ Million

Gain/Lose: $65.3+ Million

Verdict: Hit

While it’s too early to claim if this will be up there with among the most highest grossing films of the franchise, Insidious: Out of the Further still manages to continues the series overall consistency in box office numbers. Regardless of it’s release date, Insidious still seems to do just fine no matter when it comes out. It may no longer reinvent the wheel for horror but it’s still able to make the best out of it’s limited budget and can keep the brand going just as long as enough people still show up for it. Bring on Insidious 7!

Paw Patrol: The Dino Movie

Budget: $40 Million

Box Office: $125+ Million

Break Even Point: $100+ Million

Gain/Lose: $25+ Million

Verdict: Hit

This would probably be at the break even verdict had this movie came out a few months ago but since it will likely still be in theaters at least for another month and there’s no major kids movie coming out until Forgotten Island, I’m willing to bet it will make more in profit in terms of theater, digital, and streaming that Paramount will be more than happy with the results of Paw Patrol. Like a handful of successes this summer, just keep the budgets low and deliver on crowd pleasing thrills and you will be surprised how much money you will get back as a result.

When you take all the box office results into account with the ways that most film analysts use to determine if the movie is a success or failure, this summer has had a total of TEN movies that should be considered hits, five movies that should be considered bombs (with one potential exception thanks to streaming), two movies that underperformed, and two other movies that did just enough to break even.

With these results, I am more than happy to say the movie theaters are indeed coming back and for the first time since Covid-19, it seems like it is FINALLY headed towards a positive direction. Yes, it’s a shame that The Mandalorian & Grogu and Disclosure Day underperformed as they did and Supergirl and Moana (2026) were the gigantic bombs that they were, there was just WAY too much success stories to completely right this summer off.

You had Toy Story 5 being another billion dollar animated grosser for Disney, you had The Devil Wears Prada 2 and Scary Movie (2026) being able to ride the legacy-quel wave to become solid hits, you had The Odyssey being the massive theatrical event that it was advertised to be and practically bringing back the good old days of movie theaters, you had Spider-Man: Brand New Day killing all Marvel/superhero fatigue narratives yet again to become only the THIRD two billion dollar juggernaut of all time, and of course, you can NOT forget two of the greatest cinematic success story in recent memory than with Obsession and Backrooms. Even a low grossing franchise installment like Minions & Monsters was STILL able to cross the half billion dollar mark and gain plenty of revenue for Universal and Illumination Animation. Throw early year hits such as Scream 7, Hoppers, Project Hail Mary, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, and Michael and I would say that movie theaters have been eating quite good for 2026.

While I don’t know movie theaters will EVER be able to capture the same magic they were able to before 2020, 2026 is prove that there is still a massive audience and demographic for the film going experience. This might just be the start of a big shift that we are seeing with how we view our entertainment. With streaming prices going up, more studio mergers happening, and owning digital media no longer having that special ownership feeling as physical media, you can sense there’s a chance of vibes, especially among younger audiences, of the way they go about seeing the newest film releases.

Because of that and more, there is still plenty of hope for movie theaters! There are still plenty of changes that need to be made (lower ticket prices/concessions, longer theatrical windows, longer time waiting for films to come to digital/streaming, more movie subscriptions/clubs….etc.) but if studios keep going with this direction while being able to contain a sustainable budget with most big movies they released, there might still be hope for movie theaters yet!

Top 10 Biggest 2026 Summer Movies- Box Office Predictions

AdamLeave a comment

We are approaching May, which means we are officaly enterting the summer movie season! The time of the year where the big blockbusters of the year are front and center in movie theaters everywhere now that the kids are out of school! Because of that, it’s time to do a list of what I believe will be the top highest grossing films of the summer!

With Hollywood continuing to struggle in the movie theater business post-covid, only God knows how many more summer movie seasons await. Although, theaters have been picking up great momentum in the box office as of late with the likes of Project Hail Mary and The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, it’s unclear how long they will be able to carry that momentum throughout the rest of the year and even the future.

I think the 2026 summer movie season will give a big indication as to whether or not Hollywood is still recovering from the post-covid era of struggling to get people’s butts into theater seats or will this be the beginning of a resurrection for summer movies! We can only cross our fingers and hope for the best!

And considering I’ve been seeing multiple people put their own predictions of the top 10 biggest summer movies in terms of profit, why not throw my own hat in the ring and do my own list of this?! Keep in mind, these are the movies that I believe will be the highest grossing of the summer, not the ones that I desperately want to be at the very top. This list is not a matter of anticipation or movies I think will be objectively the best, this is a list of the movies that I believe will be the most to least successful in terms of the top 10 movies of the summer.

Also, this is a ranking based on box office numbers worldwide and NOT domestic. That list would be harder and more complicated for me to judge. This is how I feel the box office numbers will hold for summer movies WORLDWIDE from late April to mid August. Could I be dead wrong on every single one of these? Absolutely! But hey, it’s fun to be able to make predictions, right?!

And yes, I am throwing Michael in there. Even though it’s a movie that’s coming out in April, I think that gives up more “summer movie season kick off” vibes than The Devil Wears Prada 2. Just like how Infinity War and Endgame gave off more “summer movie season kick off” vibes….than whatever the heck released in the first week of May in 2018 and 2019!

Time to jump right in and put my predictions on what I believe will be the top 10 highest grossing films of the summer!

10.) Supergirl

Release Date: June 26th

Box Office Projection: $350+ Million

It’s very difficult to find any positive signs here. From it’s questionable release date to it’s lackluster trailers to it’s already nightmare PR, Supe’s cousin will have a hard time finding any sort of audience in the theaters come June. Even Jason Momoa won’t be the selling point that DC is hoping he will be. Unless the quality of the film ends up being nothing sort of stellar, with Elemental-like legs to help pull it through, I expect Supergirl to be one of the more heartbreaking bombs of the summer, falling into the same “female-led movies made for men” wheelhouse with 2024’s Furiosa and last summer’s Ballerina. Mr. Gunn and company better hope that Man of Tomorrow delivers next summer or else this new DC Universe might just be over before it even got a chance to settle in, (and that’s not even mentioning the GIANT elephant in the room that’s about to swallow Warner Bros Discovery up).

9.) The Mandalorian & Grogu

Release Date: May 22nd

Box Office Projection: $400+ Million

Who in their right minds thought that Star Wars’ first trip back to cinema since 2019 should involve an extension of a streaming series that ended three years ago and peaked in quality over five years ago?! With the near non-existence marketing and a very vague plot synopsis, The Mandalorian & Grogu looks more in-line with the The Clone Wars animated film from 2008 than any of the “official” Star Wars films (And that’s totally NOT because both films where originally meant to be several episodes of their own respective shows and JUST so happens to have Jabba the Hutt’s son in it). The good news is that it will have two weeks to itself, including Memorial Day weekend, before having to go up against any real competition, and if the budget is tight enough, it won’t need to make a fortunate to avoid a Solo: A Star Wars Story-level financial disaster. It looks harmless enough with the fan favorite characters from the Disney era in Mando and Grogu at the forefront, with the G.O.A.T. Sigourney Weaver thrown in there for good measure. If this doesn’t make any noise once June rolls around, it might be up to good old Ryan Gosling to salvage what’s left of the Star Wars IP come this time next year with Star Wars: Starfighter.

8.) Discourse Day

Release Date: June 12th

Box Office Projection: $475+ Million

This could easily come back to burn me later on down the road but every summer, there’s always tends to be one original film that’s able to break out at the box office in ways that nobody expected. Last year, that film was F1. This year, I can see Discourse Day being that film. Maybe it’s because it’s a Steven Spielberg film and the whole “Are aliens real or not?!” question that the film is asking has become strangely relevant in recent months (Thanks, Obama!), but I can see this shocking everyone in amazement to at least edge around the half billion dollar mark. This film’s potential level of grand success is all about the timing of it’s release and if the word-of-mouth is able to be on the level of Project Hail Mary. Films like Sinners, K-Pop Demon Hunters, and the two others I mentioned has shown that audiences are indeed hungry for more original stories/experiences on the big screen, the solid quality just needs to be there. And if the quality is there, don’t be surprised to see Discourse Day defying every expectation this summer.

7.) The Devil Wears Prada 2

Release Date: May 1st

Box Office Projection: $625+ Million

If there’s one thing we should all learn by now, it’s to NEVER underestimate the power of women. Films like Barbie, Wicked, and last winter’s The Housemaid has shown that the ladies will ALWAYS show up in drones to see films in theaters that are specifically made for them. The original Devil Wears Prada turns 20 years old this year and has gained a MASSIVE cult following throughout the past two decades. With the return of the OG cast of Meryl Streep, Anne Hathaway, Emily Blunt, and Stanley Tucci, it’s strong marketing, and massive trailer hype/viewership, I fully expect The Devil Wears Prada 2 to kick off May on a high note and be the big film to beat next month.

6.) The Odyssey

Release Date: July 17th

Box Office Projection: $750+ Million

To be sure, a film like this making at least 750 million dollar signs in this day and age should be seen as a MAJOR accomplishment! There is no other filmmaker working today other than Christopher Nolan that could generate this level of excitement with a project like this! However, I don’t see The Odyssey being on the same level as Oppenheimer (which made $975+ million in 2023), as it won’t have the “Barbenheimer” hype attached to it despite it tackling a more “universal” story. Not to mention, the potential loss of its IMAX screens after it’s first two weeks due to Spider-Man: Brand New Day could greatly affect repeated viewings for its theatrical release! Christopher Nolan is perhaps the one director working today to where his name attached to a film alone will guarantee box office success (Every film that Nolan has directed since 2008’s The Dark Knight has been able to achieve this mark, even Tenet in 2020, A.K.A. the covid year!) and The Odyssey should be no exception! However, the road to doing Oppenheimer level numbers will be much tougher for Mr. Nolan this time around!

5.) Moana (2026)

Release Date: July 10th

Box Office Projection: $800+ Million

Moana is undoubtedly one of the most popular Disney brands right now, with the original animated film being the most streamed movie ever on Disney Plus and its sequel making a billion dollars just over a year ago! What will likely hold this live-action remake back other than the crowded family summer movie season is its lack of nostalgia factor! Live-action remakes like The Lion King (2019) and Lilo & Stitch (2025) were able to be the billion dollar grossers they did BECAUSE of the nostalgia attached to those films, which gave kids enough time to grow up, become nostalgic for the original animated Disney classics, and have raised kids of their own to share the theatrical experience with! Moana (2026) will be coming out at a time where the original animated film won’t even be fully 10 years old yet (It released in November 2016 btw) and just a year and a half after its animated sequel came out! It will still be a big success since the Moana brand is still strong but the lack of the nostalgic hook will prevent this from making a billion dollars!

4.) Minions & Monsters

Release Date: July 1st

Box Office Projection: $850+ Million

Since 2010, Illumination Animation has been able to crack the code on how to make crowd pleasing animated flicks for young kids, forcing their parents to take them to the movie theaters every other summer to see the newest Despicable Me and Minions movie that comes out. In regards to the installments that have come from this franchise post-covid, Minions: The Rise of Guru was able to make $940+ million in 2022 and Despicable Me 4 made $971+ million in 2024! Due to a much more crowded summer than in 2022 and 2024, having to compete with other family flicks such as the one-two Mickey Mouse punch of Toy Story 5 and Moana (2026), I do expect Minions & Monsters to take a decline as well, in a similar way that last summer’s Jurassic World: Rebirth was a slight decline with the other Jurassic Park/World movies. Even if this one ends up being slightly inferior to it’s predecessors and The Super Mario Galaxy Movie isn’t the $1.5+ billion juggernaut I predicted (Silly me!), Illumination and Universal should be eating just fine with their animated feature films in 2026!

3.) Michael

Release Date: April 24th

Box Office Projection: $950+ Million

I don’t care if the pre-sales numbers have been iffy thus far and the behind-the-scenes drama will put a giant raincloud throughout the press release, THIS is one that I can see being a global phenomenon. Michael Jackson is no doubt the most popular musician of all time, gaining worldwide appeal from all across planet Earth. With the high trailer numbers and the multiple generations of fans that MJ has gained throughout the course of several decades, there should be no reason to doubt his annual biopic will be a huge theatrical success. If the legs are strong and it ends up pleasing the masses enough, I can see Michael topping Bohemian Rhapsody as the highest grossing musical biopic of all time. This seems like the kind of film that will get people who don’t go to theaters anymore off their couches, similar to the likes of Top Gun: Maverick and Barbenheimer. Even though this film will be released in April, this will likely be seen as the true kick-off to the summer movie season of 2026!

2.) Toy Story 5

Release Date: June 19th

Box Office Projection: $1.1+ Billion

Although I was harsher on this one in my initial box office predictions earlier this year, this has grown on me quite a bit in recent months. To compare the box office numbers of the last two Toy Story movies, Toy Story 4 made $1.073+ billion about nine years after Toy Story 3, which made around $1.066+ billion. That’s less than a seven million dollar increase between these two films despite being nearly a decade apart! However, with it’s iPad storyline being very timely and the trailers seeming to promise a more traditional Toy Story adventure than Toy Story 4 did, I can see Toy Story 5 surpassing the previous film just enough to take the crown as the big family film of the summer, even from Disney’s own Moana (2026). Even if the film stumbles in quality or ends up being a punching bag on the internet like Toy Story 4 became after it’s release, there will still be plenty of kids and families that will go see this film in theaters to make it at least flirt with the billion dollar mark!

1.) Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Release Date: July 31st

Box Office Projection: $1.3+ Billion

Even in an era where superhero fatigue is at an all-time high, Spider-Man will ALWAYS be a box office draw no matter what! Him and Batman have proven themselves to be perhaps the lone superhero IPs that can still draw box office hits in the most uncertain times of the genre, at least if the successes of 2021’s No Way Home ($1.9+ billion), 2022’s The Batman ($772+ million), and 2023’s Across the Spider-Verse ($690+ million) is anything to go by. And NO, this will NOT be a No Way Home box office juggernaut but that should be expected considering this will (likely) not have the nostalgia of the good old days with William Dafoe and Tobey Maguire attached to it. I expect similar numbers to Far From Home (which made $1.1+ billion high off the heels of Avengers: Endgame), if not a bit more. Between the additions of notable Marvel characters such as The Punisher, Hulk, and whoever the heck Sadie Sink is suppose to be playing along with there being a decent amount of time since the last Spider-Man movie came out to build hype (No Way Home turns HALF a decade old this year btw!), Brand New Day will stand proud as the #1 film of the 2026 summer movie season, proving Spidey can defy ANY realms of superhero and Marvel fatigue!

1.) Spider-Man: Brand New Day- $1.3+ Billion

2.) Toy Story 5- $1.1+ Billion

3.) Michael- $950+ Million

4.) Minions & Monsters- $850+ Million

5.) Moana (2026)- $800+ Million

6.) The Odyssey- $750+ Million

7.) The Devil Wears Prada 2- $625+ Million

8.) Disclosure Day- $475+ Million

9.) The Mandalorian & Grogu- $400+ Million

10.) Supergirl- $350+ Million

As for other movies that missed the list:

  • Masters of the Universe (2026)
    • $325+ Million
      • I went back and forth between Supergirl and Masters of the Universe for the #10 spot but I went with Supergirl because I believe superheroes still have more appeal with Gen Z and Millennials than Masters of the Universe has with baby boomers. Even if the quality is on the level of Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves like I expected to be given it’s Travis Knight taking the wheel here, He-Man just doesn’t seem like a popular brand in the year 2026. I wouldn’t be surprised if this film ends up losing Amazon quite a bit of money.

  • Mortal Kombat II
    • $175+ Million
      • Even if the first film was a bomb in 2021 (when half of movie theaters around the world will still closed), Mortal Kombat II should do quite well, with it being giving a more proper theatrical release and the trailers promising to deliver the goods the fans wanted that they didn’t get from the first film. Even if it will do numbers closer to Five Nights At Freddy’s than Minecraft, Mario, or Sonic, I don’t think WB will be too upset with the box office results. I only wonder if it was wise to delayed the picture from it’s original fall release from last year.

  • Scary Movie (2026)
    • $200+ Million
      • If Scary Movie is able to be on the same level of quality as last year’s The Naked Gun, then I can see the sixth entry riding the successful wave of Scream 7, opening the doors opening for more raw horror/politically incorrect comedies for the immediate future.

  • Evil Dead Burn
    • $50+ Million
      • Evil Dead Burn will likely end up being as buried and forgotten as ME3AN 2.0 was last summer. Again, what is it with these horror films getting the most bizarre release dates imaginable?!

  • Paw Patrol: The Dino Movie
    • $150+ Million
      • This will prove that Paw Patrol is still….a thing that exists for kids. But, it’s also coming out at the tail end of summer and when kids start going back to school so….yeah.

  • Jackass: Best and Last
    • $100+ Million
      • Johnny, please take us ALL home with Jackass: Best and Last! Just take us all home!

Summer 2025 Box Office Breakdown

AdamLeave a comment

Movie theaters are in trouble! That’s at least what I’ve been hearing ever since Covid! Ever since that disastrous turn of events that shut down the whole world for a year or two, movie theaters all around the world has seen a significant decline in ticket and concessions sales. That hasn’t stopped Hollywood from doing everything in their power to keep the movie theater going experience alive. Even in the age of streaming, pirating, and Tik Tok, this is a battle that the movie making folks in southern California are willing to fight until they suddenly can’t.

And I don’t think there has been a period of time that has determined just how “well” movie theaters are going throughout the 2020s than this year’s lineup of summer blockbusters. Five years removed of movie theaters being shutdown and two years of infamous strikes, this is probably the most “back to normal” feeling that Hollywood has felt since pre-Covid. If this summer saw yet another underperforming two to three months, then there must come serious questions as to how long movie theaters have before they go extinct.

However, now that summer has come and gone, it’s time to see the results of how all the main feature films did in movie theaters everywhere. And the results are…….complicated.

In case you are wondering how I am judging it, I am gonna look at each major wide release that came out at the start of May to the middle of August. I’m gonna list the film’s budget, how much the film made at the box office, what the projected break even point likely was, how much the film gain in profit, and whether or not it should been seen as a success, flop, or break even point for the studios.

I’m only gonna use math that most tend to use when judging how a film does at the box office. Mostly by taking the budget, times that by 2.5X to cover the whole budget surrounding production and marketing, and seeing how much money it made or lose as a result.

Again, that is not the case for EVERY single one of these movies and this is NOT a direct result as to how the studios view each film from a financial standpoint. This is just my personal guess and opinion as to how each one of these films should be viewed as.

Plus, it’s also worth mentioning that ever since Covid, the definition of “success” is now quite different in the eyes of many producers in Hollywood. Who’s to say that just because a film didn’t do so great in it’s opening two weeks in theaters that the studios sees it as a failure when it became a big hit on digital and streaming? That alone could make it a “success” in the minds of studios.

It is worth remembering that a film’s overall success isn’t just determined based on how it did in theaters but also how it fared in terms of digital, streaming, and physical media sales. Just because not enough people showed up in theaters to give the film profit doesn’t mean people didn’t show it’s support when said film became accessible to all of our home media.

Regardless, I hope you all enjoy this analysis and gives you a good indication of how films are still thriving/struggling in movie theaters!

Thunderbolts*

Budget: $180 Million

Box Office: $382.4 Million

Break Even Point: $450+ Million

Gain/Lose: -$67.6+ Million

Verdict: Flop

Despite the mostly positive reception from fans and critics alike, this could not have been a bigger disappointment at the box office if it tried. Regardless if it has to do with the film starring around D- list MCU characters that most people aren’t familiar or superhero/Marvel fatigue in general, Thunderbolts* most certainly had to pay the price for previous sins surrounding these kind of films. It may have done solid ratings on Disney Plus and did at least kick of the summer movie season better than say…..The Fall Guy last year, but it did follow the tread that most MCU films post-Endgame have suffered from in underperforming box office returns. Between this, Brave New World, and another film to be mentioned later, 2025 has not been so kind to the Marvel Cinematic Universe from a box office standpoint.

Final Destination Bloodlines

Budget: $50 Million

Box Office: $313.9 Million

Break Even Point: $125+ Million

Gain/Loss: +$188.9+ Million

Verdict: Success

The first installment from this long-running franchise since 2011 more than certainly succeeded expectations. Final Destination Bloodlines acted as a nice love letter to the franchise while also acting as a bittersweet epilogue to the amazing career of the late great Tony Todd. I wouldn’t be surprised if we end up getting a sequel 2-3 years time (although hopefully no A.I. Tony Todd is needed). If there is one thing that 2025 has taught theatrically released films, it’s that if you have a low enough budget and give plenty of breathing time in the theaters before dumping it to digital and streaming, you will indeed see some promising theatrical profit in return.

Lilo & Stitch (2025)

Budget: $100 Million

Box Office: $1.037+ Billion

Break Even Point: $250+ Million

Gain/Loss:+$787+ Million

Verdict: Success

Despite all the discourse online about this one and what the true meaning of “ohana” is, it shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone that the 2025 live-action incarnation of Lilo & Stitch was able to be the most successful film of the summer along with Hollywood’s only billion dollar grosser thus far. There was an entire generation of millennials that grew up with the original animated classic and they all most certainly showed up during Memorial Day weekend to take their kids to experience the inferior version of one of Disney’s very best films in their history. At least it’s not……whatever the hell Snow White was. It’s because of this, I wouldn’t be surprised if Disney changes their mind on bringing Rapunzel and Elsa to the live-action screens in the near future.

Mission: Impossible- The Final Reckoning

Budget: $300-400 Million

Box Office: $598.8+ Million

Break Even Point: $750+ Million to $1+ Billion

Gain/Loss: -$151.2-$401.2+ Million

Verdict: Flop

There was a lot going against Tom Cruise’s last hurrah with his nearly three decade long action franchise and unfortunately, The Final Reckoning was no match for it. Suffering from a bloated budgeted, going head-to-head with Lilo & friends on Memorial Day weekend, and being part of a franchise that arguably peak seven years ago with Mission: Impossible- Fallout, it’s clear that audiences are ready to move on from Tom Cruise damn near killing himself for our amusement. I guess we’ll have to see if Top Gun 3 will be able to replicate the success of Maverick. If not, then we might have to accept that Tom Cruise is not the “Hollywood Jesus” that his ego claims himself to be and that the G.O.A.T. may indeed be washed.

Karate Kid Legends

Budget: $45 Million

Box Office: $115.8+ Million

Break Even Point: $112.5+ Million

Gain/Loss:+$3.3+ Million

Verdict: Broke Even

You all COMPLETELY forgot this movie came out, didn’t you? As a matter of fact, most of you probably didn’t even know this movie existed. This odd culmination of the Karate Kid franchise up to this point clearly failed to set the world on fire but thanks to it’s shocking low budget, it might’ve done just enough to not be a complete failure. And it most certainly probably was able to pick up any remaining losses with it’s digital release. I don’t know what this means for the future for this franchise but at least Karate Kid: Legends can rest easily knowing it’s far from the biggest failure to come out this summer, even if it’s easily among the most forgettable movies of the year.

Ballerina

Budget: $90+ Million

Box Office: $137.2+ Million

Break Even Point: $225+ Million

Gain/Loss:-$87.8+ Million

Verdict: Flop

2025 has not been so kind to Lionsgate and Ballerina was certainly no exception. Despite the presence of Keanu Reeves himself and the positive response from critics and fans, this John Wick spin-off failed to impress at the box office. Perhaps had the budget remain closer to the original John Wick than John Wick: Chapter 4, this could’ve managed to squeeze a profit (similar to a similar female-lead action flick in Atomic Blonde) but not with it’s 90+ million dollar budget (which a good chunk of it most certainly stemmed from reshoots). Whether it’s due to the franchise finally running on fumes or audience suffering from “girl boss” fatigue, Ballerina fell way below expectations, to the point where future John Wick spin-offs and perhaps even a John Wick 5 itself might just be up in the air.

How To Train Your Dragon (2025)

Budget: $150 Million

Box Office: $635.5+ Million

Break Even Point: $375+ Million

Gain/Loss:+$260.5+ Million

Verdict: Success

DreamWorks has finally threw their hat in the ring with live-action remakes and just like with Disney themselves, while the quality may not talk the talk, the box office results can certainly walk the walk. How To Train Your Dragon (2025) was able to capture the hearts of families and mainstream audiences in similar ways that the original animated version did back in 2010 along with the better live-action remakes from Disney (or at least the ones that were able to make a billion dollars). With the success of this film and a sequel in the works, I wouldn’t be surprised to see our favorite ogre and kung panda warrior getting their live-action treatment in the near future. But hey, if it helps cover for any potential loss that The Bad Guys 2 might have, then it might certainly be worth it!

Materialists

Budget: $20 Million

Box Office: $103.5+ Million

Break Even Point: $50+ Million

Gain/Loss:+$53.5+ Million

Verdict: Success

And who says original rom-coms are dead?! Despite the rather mixed audience response, Materialists was able to act as the most successful rom-com in recent memory that does NOT start Glen Powell and Sydney Sweeney. And as much as everyone and their mother claim to be sick and tired of seeing Pedro Pascal everywhere, he can certainly help carry an original project such as this, along with Chris Evans and Dakota Johnson of course. Not much to say here than yeah, this did quite well at the theaters for this kind movie and A24 should most certainly see this as a success.

28 Years Later

Budget: $60 Million

Box Office: $151.2+ Million

Break Even Point: $150+ Million

Gain/Loss:+$1.2+ Million

Verdict: Broke Even

This divisive sequel/part one of a two-part story did just enough to break even at the box office but not much else. Perhaps had 28 Years Later been more positively received from mainstream audiences and/or it wasn’t relying on the two-part gimmick, this could’ve done much better. But nevertheless, it did at least enough to justify a Part Two getting made, which can hopefully pick up any sort of financial slack that this film might’ve left behind.

Elio

Budget: $150-200+ Million

Box Office: $154+ Million

Break Even Point: $375 to $500+ Million

Gain/Loss: -$221 to $346 Million

Verdict: Flop

Just a summer after Inside Out 2 gave Pixar the smash box office hit they desperately needed, Elio took any sort of momentum that Pixar might’ve possibly gained and COMPLETELY tripped over itself. From a combination of lackluster marketing, trouble from behind-the-scenes/development, a bloated budget, and Disney doing everything in their power to erase this movie from existence, is it any surprised this film ended up being perhaps the biggest flop of the the summer and possibly the year? Maybe I should’ve known better after doing my summer box office movie predictions but I thought after Inside Out 2, people were ready to hop back on board with Pixar with seeing their film in theaters. Looks like I was dead wrong in that regard and man…….I wish I wasn’t!

F1

Budget: $200-300+ Million

Box Office: $626+ Million

Break Even Point: $500-750 Million

Gain/Loss:+$126+ to -$124 Million

Verdict: Success

There are probably many folks out there that are shocked to see this as being labeled as a success due to the film’s massive budget but F1‘s “success” or “failure” is much more complicated than most. First off, this is a partnership between Apple+ and Warner Bros. Apple was the one that funded the movie and would take credit for the success when the film arrives on digital and streaming, while Warner Bros was able to gain the profit from theater showings. Plus, this wasn’t so much about helping out theaters than it was about promoting the sport of F1 racing all across the world! Take all those factors in mind along with the fact that a movie in 2025 was able to make $600+ million that is NOT a superhero film, live-action remake, video game adaption, or an anime, F1 was most certainly a breakout success that helped add to a terrific year that Warner Bros has had in theaters!

M3GAN 2.0

Budget: $15-25+ Million

Box Office: $39.1+ Million

Break Even Point: $37.5-62.5 Million

Gain/Loss:+$1.6 to -25 Million

Verdict: Flop

This has to be the most BAFFLING failure of this summer! Not because it’s a shock that it bombed because the movie itself lacking quality compared to the first but because some of the most baffling decisions made from a business standpoint. From dumping the movie in the middle of summer when the original did just swell in January 2023 to advertising it as a sci-fi comedy instead of sci-fi horror, it’s like Blumhouse was doing everything in their power to ensure this would be a failure. If that was the case, then they MORE than certainly succeeded.

Jurassic World Rebirth

Budget: $180-225+ Million

Box Office: $867+ Million

Break Even Point: $450-562.5+ Million

Gain/Loss:+$305-418+ Million

Verdict: Success

Here is what was wildly considered the most surprising box office success story of Summer 2025 and…..I don’t necessarily know why. While the Jurassic Park franchise might’ve no longer be the billion dollar juggernaut that previous installments were, Rebirth did prove that people still love seeing dinosaurs on the big screen. And this time around they got to see dinosaurs AND Scarlett Johansson on the big screen! What better winning combo than that! Even if this franchise should’ve ended by now, don’t be surprised if Universal wants to keep the Jurassic ball rolling after the monster smash hit of the summer. Again, this might’ve not been a billion dollar gross but it did more than enough to be considered a success!

Superman (2025)

Budget: $225+ Million

Box Office: $615.7+ Million

Break Even Point: $562.5+ Million

Gain/Loss:+$53.2+ Million

Verdict: Success

Welp, here’s the most hotly debated success/failure story of the summer! Even though Superman (2025) has gained at least $53+ million based on traditional projections (or more according to Variety), there has been a serious argument that James Gunn’s take on Superman actually underperformed and even a failure. If we look at it through the mindset of Warner Bros back in 2013, you might have an argument. But in 2025, if we take the words from CEO David Zaslav and crew, it seems like they have much more manageable expectations and just needed to do enough to make a profit and do well in digital and physical sales to be considered a success. They know they can’t turn everything around in one movie like they thought they could a decade ago and are willing to be more patient in regaining the mainstream audience trust. Looking it that way, Superman (2025) was indeed a success. Sorry Snyder cult!

I Know What You Did Last Summer (2025)

Budget: $18+ Million

Box Office: $64.7+ Million

Break Even Point: $45+ Million

Gain/Loss:+$19.7+ Million

Verdict: Success

This might’ve been controversial among die-hard fans and mainstream audiences but thanks to a super low budget of just 18 million dollars, I Know What You Did Last Summer (2025) did good enough to at least guarantee it to be a success. Once again, the lower the budget, the easier it is for your film to be a profit in theaters. More studios should take notes on that, especially with what has come from the horror genre this year!

Smurfs (2025)

Budget: $58+ Million

Box Office: $120+ Million

Break Even Point: $145+ Million

Gain/Loss:-$15+ Million

Verdict: Flop

No one was asking for a new iteration of the Smurfs in 2025! Not kids! Not families! Not anyone! And they were ESPECIALLY not asking for a new iteration with Rihanna, James Corden, or Jimmy Kimmel (Although, PRO-FREEDOM OF SPEECH!)! Literally no one but Paramount should be shocked at the fact that this bombed! And even then, I think deep down they aren’t shocked at all either!

The Fantastic Four- First Steps

Budget: $200+ Million

Box Office: $521.5+ Million

Break Even Point: $500+ Million

Gain/Loss:+$21.5 Million

Verdict: Broke Even

This might’ve been the highest grossing MCU film of the year but it still disappointed greatly, compared to the highest grossing MCU films of prior years. This will likely mark the first year that an MCU film does NOT make it to the top 10 highest grossing overall films of the year since 2011. The Fantastic Four has certainly been more appealing to die-hard Marvel and comic fans than it did the mainstream audience but you can’t help but wonder how much better this would’ve done pre-2019. If adjusted projections are to go by, The Fantastic Four-First Steps will likely be the one MCU film to break even in 2025…..but that’s it. And for Marvel Studios standards, that’s quite underwhelming!

The Naked Gun (2025)

Budget: $42+ Million

Box Office: $102+ Million

Break Even Point: $105+ Million

Gain/Loss: -$3+ Million

Verdict: Broke Even

If we are talking about how much the 2025 incarnation of the The Naked Gun did in theaters, it might’ve fell just short of reaching it’s break even point. However, with making up any potential revenue loss with it’s release to digital and soon streaming, I would believe Paramount was more satisfied with how this one did than say……Mission: Impossible. I don’t think this did enough to “save” comedies or resurrected a genre of films that Hollywood has been quite picky to tackle for the better part of a decade but for what it’s worth, I believe this did just fine.

The Bad Guys 2

Budget: $80+ Million

Box Office: $225+ Million

Break Even Point: $200+ Million

Gain/Loss:+$25+ Million

Verdict: Broke Even

This one is quite a tongue twister. Largely impacted by a slew of summer movie competition along with pulling the trigger to the digital release so quicky, The Bad Guys 2 is more likely unable to match the success that the original did. However, due to working at a sizable budget and having solid digital sales thus far, it seems like it did just enough to match it’s break even point. While we might still get a third movie sometime in the future, I don’t think The Bad Guys franchise has become the success story that DreamWorks had envisioned it being, especially compared to the likes of Shrek, Kung Fu Panda, and How To Train Your Dragon. In that regards, it’s quite a same because this has been a damn good animated series of films thus far! Fingers crossed that a third movie gets made!

Freakier Friday

Budget: $42-45+ Million

Box Office: $152.3+ Million

Break Even Point: $105-112.5+ Million

Gain/Loss:+$39.8-47.3+ Million

Verdict: Success

I still don’t know why this was even made but thanks to it’s lower budget and modest box office projections, Jamie Lee Curtis and Lindsey Lohan’s Disney team-up that was 22 years in the making was able to exceed expectations without breaking any new ground. I guess it helps to have a sizeable budget and leaving plenty of breathing room between theater showings and digital/physical releases. If only Disney can get that same memo with everything else they do in the way they did with Freakier Friday.

Weapons

Budget: $38+ Million

Box Office: $266.4+ Million

Break Even Point: $95+ Million

Gain/Loss:+$170+ Million

Verdict: Success

Similar to Sinners and Final Destination: Bloodlines, Weapons was able to prove once again that you can win big in horror by playing small. This genuinely scary crowd pleaser was able to make the best with it’s modest budget to craft a smash hit, standing alongside with plenty of original horror films in recent memory. Even with what was a rather crowded area of theatrically released films at the time it came out, this was able to stand out swiftly to be a nice success story. Now let’s just see if director Zach Cregger can say the same for Resident Evil next year!

Nobody 2

Budget: $25+ Million

Box Office: $39.4+ Million

Break Even Point: $62.5+ Million

Gain/Loss:-$23.1+ Million

Verdict: Flop

Here’s a movie that did so poorly in it’s time in theaters that the studios pulled it completely from the big screens after five weeks and just dumped it to digital. To be fair, this is a rare case that I actually can’t blame the studio for making that movie so quickly. Whether it’s because too much time has passed since the original or it just flew under the radar for a lot of people, the sequel to Bob Odenkirk’s action franchise just did not get the same love and support that the original did (and even then, that didn’t really set the world of fire either). Between Nobody 2, The Final Reckoning, and last year’s flops of Monkey Man, Boy Kills World, and The Fall Guy, perhaps there isn’t as much of a crave for “masculine” action heroes that conservatives and alt-right online influencers would have you believe.

When you take all the box office results into account with the ways that most film analysts use to determine if the movie is a success or failure, this summer has had a total of nine movies that were successes, seven movies that were failures, and about five movies that did enough to break even.

What that tells me is that movie theaters are still not in a great spot but they are NOT ready to die out quite yet. While it’s a shame that certain films like The Fantastic Four- First Steps and Mission: Impossible– The Final Reckoning didn’t become the smash hits that were expected and that other films like Thunderbolts* and Elio ended up being massive bombs, this summer did show that there is at least a want and need for plenty of variety within theatrically released films.

You have live-action remakes, you have dinosaur action, you have horror thrills, you have action-comedies, you have rom-coms, and you have sports films! All of which were able to gain an audience in theaters and many of which were able to take some of the spotlight away from the kind of films that have dominated theaters in recent memory, particularly superheroes and video game adaptions.

That’s why I’m not too worried about the fact that a superhero film might not crack the top 10 of the year or that anime and re-releases might be taken more theater screenings! It doesn’t mean one genre is dying, it means more genres are EMERGING! The more genres of films that is resurrected and emerged, the more demographics are eager to see film in theaters, and the more money studios and theaters make! If Hollywood wants to keep theaters alive, THIS is the way to do it!

Because of that and more, I still believe there is still hope for movie theaters! There are still plenty of changes that need to be made (lower ticket prices/concessions, longer theatrical windows, longer time waiting for films to come to digital/streaming, more movie subscriptions/clubs….etc.) but if studios keep going with this direction while being able to contain a sustainable budget with most big movies they released, there might still be hope for movie theaters yet!

Top 10 Biggest 2025 Summer Movies- Box Office Predictions

AdamLeave a comment

It’s now officially May which means it’s now officially the summer movie season! The time of the year where the big blockbusters of the year are front and center in movie theaters everywhere now that the kids are out of school! Because of that, it’s time to do a list of what I believe will be the top highest grossing films of the summer!

With Hollywood continuing to struggle in the movie theater business post-covid, only God knows how many more summer movie seasons await. Although, theaters have been picking up great momentum in the box office as of late with the likes of A Minecraft Movie, Sinners, and the very successful re-release of Star Wars: Episode III- Revenge of the Sith, it’s unclear how long they will be able to carry that momentum throughout the rest of the year and even the future.

I think the 2025 summer movie season will give a big indication as to whether or not Hollywood is still recovering from the post-covid era of struggling to get people’s butts into theater seats or will this be the beginning of a resurrection for summer movies! We can only cross our fingers and hope for the best!

And considering I’ve been seeing multiple people put their own predictions of the top 10 biggest summer movies in terms of profit, why not throw my own hat in the ring and do my own list of this?! Keep in mind, these are the movies that I believe will be the highest grossing of the summer, not the ones that I desperately want to be at the very top. If that were the case, then Superman (2025) would be #1 and Jurassic World Rebirth would be dead last on this list. This list is not a matter of anticipation or movies I think will be objectively the best, this is a list of the movies that I believe will be the most to least successful in terms of the top 10 movies of the summer.

Also, this is a ranking based on box office numbers worldwide and NOT domestic. That list would be harder and more complicated for me to judge. This is how I feel the box office numbers will hold for summer movies WORLDWIDE from May to mid-to-late August. Could I be dead wrong on every single one of these? Absolutely! But hey, it’s fun to be able to make predictions, right?!

Time to jump right in and put my predictions on what I believe will be the top 10 highest grossing films of the summer!

10.) Karate Kid Legends

Release Date: May 30th

Box Office Projection: $300+ Million

Reason: The Karate Kid franchise has had some solid popularity as of late with the smash hit Netflix series Cobra Kai, that just concluded its sixth and final season. With Legends acting as the first film entry of the franchise since The Karate Kid (2010), we see both Jackie Chan (the star of the 2010 film) and Ralph Macchio (the OG Karate Kid) coming together to train a new student in the ways of kung fu. I’m not sure how much fans out there have been eagerly awaiting for this combo or even another entry but if it’s able to capture a tiny bit of the magic of Cobra Kai, I can see Karate Kid: Legends being a solid crowd pleaser and a satisfying coming of a full circle for die-hard fans.

9.) F1

Release Date: June 27th

Box Office Projection: $425+ Million

Reason: Ngl, if this movie were set to come out before Sinners, I probably would not have put this on the list. However, after the surprising success of that film, which will certainly get as strong of box office legs as it possibly can, it proves that audiences still have hunger and desire for original films. Add that to the star power of Brad Pitt (recent controversy aside) and director Joseph Kosinski coming high off of Top Gun: Maverick, I can see F1 being the exact kind of smash hit that Hollywood needs for these kinds of films. The only question is whether or not the studios will let this one grow as the summer goes on and the mega July blockbusters start coming into play.

8.) Thunderbolts*

Release Date: May 1st

Box Office Projection: $450+ Million

Reason: The first main blockbuster of the summer just came out in theaters and is set to at least kick off the summer box office better than last year’s The Fall Guy did. With strong reviews and early positive word-of-mouth, Thunderbolts* can most certainly outperformed early expectations and make enough in the long run to be able to make a profit. It’ll be entertaining to see how the media and YouTube will try to spin this film as being an actual failure because it didn’t make a billion dollars overnight or what was once considered “good enough” for a MCU/superhero movie is no longer good enough anymore. The only downside, other than a sudden Multiverse of Madness second week drop off, could be seeing how this is able to stack up once the likes of Mission: Impossible and Lilo & Stitch comes around and if Disney and Marvel will have cold feet early and dump it to Disney Plus once Fantastic Four is out.

7.) Elio

Release Date: June 20th

Box Office Projection: $475+ Million

Reason: Last year saw Pixar’s most successful and crowd-pleasing film ever at the box office with Inside Out 2, the highest grossing animated film at the time of it’s release. However, they now face a different challenge with Elio, a new and original animated flick that has been delayed multiple times. With no Woody, Buzz, or Lightning McQueen in sight, it will more than certainly have to rely on its stellar quality to make folks want to see it in theaters rather than wait for it on Disney Plus. If Pixar and Disney can pull off the same strategy they did with Elemental and Inside Out 2, by keeping it in theaters as long as they can and saving the physical/digital releases until Fall, then I can see this making a solid 575 million dollar signs, which would most certainly be good enough. Again, this will all likely matter if the finished film is actually any good.

6.) Mission: Impossible- The Final Reckoning

Release Date: May 23rd

Box Office Projection: $600+ Million

Reason: Tom Cruise is here to “save” cinema one last time with Mission: Impossible- The Final Reckoning, acting as the potential final entry to the near three decade-long running Mission: Impossible film franchise. However, I still can’t help but feel like this one is gonna underperform it’s skyrocket expectations at the box office. While making $600 million sounds like a notable success on paper, the film’s reported $400 million budget and coming off of the underwhelming (at least in terms of box office) Dead Reckoning will give The Final Reckoning a near-impossible mission to accomplish. Also, facing immediate competition with Lilo & Stitch won’t make things much easier either. I’m always rooting for this franchise but it has all odds against itself this time around. Hopefully, there’s enough of Tom Cruise running to save this film this time around.

5.) How To Train Your Dragon (2025)

Release Date: June 13th

Box Office Projection: $650+ Million

Reason: After the mixed-at-best results of Disney live-action remakes since 2010, DreamWorks and Universal has decided to take their stab at it by adapting the beloved animated How To Train Your Dragon in live-action form. With a sequel already being announced and set for a 2027 release date, it’s clear that DreamWorks and Universal are expecting this one to perform well. If it’s able to live up to the promise of being a faithful transition to the animated film and avoid any Snow White-level of controversy, then How To Train Your Dragon (2025) should most certainly make the money it needs to and act as a proper re-introduction to DreamWorks’ most acclaimed animated film series to date.

4.) The Fantastic Four- First Steps

Release Date: July 25th

Box Office Projection: $675+ Million

Reason: I don’t care what YouTube says or what outrageous out of context quote got social media in a pansy, this film is gonna do numbers at the box office and be Marvel’s most successful film released in 2025. Even with those that have been sour on Marvel and previous Fantastic Four incarnations, they will still owe it to themselves to see Marvel Studios themselves take their first stab at adapting Marvel’s first family onto the big screen. With the build-up to Avengers: Doomsday looming and Thunderbolts* being a potential box office success, The Fantastic Four- First Steps should have no problem in carrying that momentum from Marvel and set the stage for Doomsday and Secret Wars nicely. If I look like a foul in two months, so be it. But for now, I can’t help but have positive expectations for this one!

3.) Superman (2025)

Release Date: July 11th

Box Office Projection: $750+ Million

Reason: There’s plenty of reasons to be positive and negative about Superman (2025). This is a film that sees Superman returning to the big screen in his first standalone film since 2013, the start of a brand new cinematic universe, and what will likely be viewed as the film that gives the superhero genre the shot in the arm it needs. And it’s whole “This is the movie the world needs right now!” marketing should most likely play a positive impact. However, conflicting reports of the film being released overseas along with not knowing the exact expectations that Warner Bros has for this film could hurt it in the long run, which could make James Gunn’s DC universe over before it even begins. Still, this should be one of the most talked about and discussed movies of the summer regardless and will likely attract enough audience to give it a watch on the big screen.

2.) Jurassic World Rebirth

Release Date: July 2nd

Box Office Projection: $900+ Million

Reason: I don’t know how they keep making these films and why they always make so much money at the box office. That being said, this franchise is always able to draw big crowds both domestically and overseas. Coming off the (rather quiet) billion dollar grosser of Jurassic World: Dominion (which was supposed to be the final film in the franchise), Jurassic World Rebirth will see Universal try to squeeze whatever remaining dollars it has left with the Jurassic Park IP. I got nothing to say other than if it offers enough dino action and Black Widow and Blade kicking enough ass together, this should be one of the biggest hits of the year. The only question is whether or not it’s able to follow his predecessors and achieve the billion dollar mark, especially after Dominion just barely was able to accomplish that. Although if my prediction is any indication, I’m gonna go with a no on that one.

1.) Lilo & Stitch (2025)

Release Date: May 23rd

Box Office Projection: $1.1+ Billion

Reason: You might be calling me crazy for putting a Disney live-action remake as not just the #1 spot but the one that will be able to achieve $1 billion at the box office. I mean, how could Disney possibly recover after Snow White (2025), right? Well, they were able to recently achieve billion dollar grossers with Inside Out 2 and Moana 2 along with a solid 700 million dollar hit in Mufasa (*insert Sonic fan punching the air). Plus, this is being sold as the cute family friendly big movie of the summer, regardless if you have seen the original animated Lilo & Stitch or not. All it needs to do is deliver exactly what it says on the cover, avoid any negative press of any sort, and give itself a good long theatrical window. Do all of that and I pretty much guarantee that this will be the #1 movie of the summer and will be yet another billion dollar grossing hit for Disney. If I end up being wrong, so be it. But if I’m not, then you can all eat cake!

As for other movies that missed the list:

  • I think Ballerina will avoid the fate of Furiosa if Keanu Reeves plays a significant role in the movie but it likely won’t make as much as the last few John Wick flicks.

  • 28 Years Later and Megan 2.0 should appeal greatly to fans of the horror genre and previous installments of their respected IPs but I can’t help but feel it will get lost in the shuffle with them being released so close to other big movies.

  • The Naked Gun will either sneak under the radar as the one standout comedy flick of the summer or be buried and forgotten like the rest of the remaining comedy genre.

  • The Bad Guys 2 will certainly gain numbers during the fall if it’s able to continue the streak of perfect DreamWorks sequels but I left it off the list because it’s coming out right as the summer movie season comes to a close.

  • Freakier Friday is………a thing I guess. It might make noise for a week or two but then be completely forgotten about along with Haunted Mansion.