It’s now officially May which means it’s now officially summer movie season! The time of the year where the big blockbusters of the year are front and center in movie theaters everywhere now that the kids are out of school! Because of that, I figure I’d so something that I’ve yet to do on this blog, do a list of what I believe will be the top highest grossing films of the summer!
2023 was an absolute DISASTER at the box office during the summer time! That is largely due to the massive budgets from the majority of the big movies that came out that year along with just the overall inconsistent-to-poor quality of those big movies. And considering the fact there will likely be no Barbenheimer to save the summer, 2024 will likely be just as challenging for summer movies!
Even so, I think the 2024 summer movie season will give a big indication as to whether or not Hollywood is still recovering from the post-covid era of struggling to get people’s butts into theater seats or will this be the beginning of a resurrection for summer movies! We can only cross our fingers and hope for the best!
And considering I’ve been seeing multiple people put their own predictions of the top 10 biggest summer movies in terms of profit, why not throw my own hat in the ring and do my own list of this?! Keep in mind, these are the movies that I believe will be the highest grossing of the summer, not the ones that I desperately want to be at the very top. If that were the case, then Furiosa would at least be in the top 3 and Despicable Me 4 would be dead last on this list. This is list is not a matter of anticipating or movies I think will be objective the best, this is a list of the movies that I believe will be the most to least successful in terms of the top 10 movies of the summer.
Also, this is a ranking based on box office numbers worldwide and NOT domestic. That list would be harder and more complicated for me to judge. This is how I feel the box office numbers will hold for each film WORLDWIDE. Could I be dead wrong on every single one of these? Absolutely! But hey, it’s fun to be able to make predictions, right?!
Time to jump right in and put my predictions on what I believe will be the top 10 highest grossing films of the summer!
10.) Furiosa
Release Date: May 24th
Box Office Projection: $350 Million
Reason: I have all the faith in the world that George Miller will deliver with this film but I’m just not sure it’s one that most general audience will be interested in. Despite the massive praise that Mad Max: Fury Road got back in 2015, it only made a little over 380 million dollars worldwide, with a net loss somewhere between $20-$40 million. And considering this is basically a prequel spin-off surrounding a character from Fury Road but played by a completely different actress and with no Mad Max to be found in the marketing, that doesn’t inspire much confidence for Furiosa to top or even match that. I love to be proven wrong and the cult following of Fury Road will show up to this one but I wouldn’t be surprised if this ends up being the most frustrating Hollywood flop since last year Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning, especially with the rumored film budget being over 200 million dollars! Hopefully this prevails and we get more Mad Max films from George Miller with the time we still have with him!
9.) Bad Boys Ride or Die
Release Date: June 7th
Box Office Projection: $400 Million
Reason: This is likely the summer movie I’m the most curious to see how it performs. This is a sequel to a movie that was one of the last solid hits to come out before covid hit. If it’s able to hit all the right beats just like Bad Boys For Life did, then I can see this doing similar numbers to that and perhaps even top it. The only big question is whether or not everyone has forgiven Will Smith for slapping Chris Rock on stage yet?
8.) The Fall Guy
Release Date: May 3rd
Box Office Projection: $425 Million
Reason: The first big movie of the summer is set to arrive tomorrow and I think this will largely benefit from being that first big movie of the summer. It also helps that it’s an awfully good over-the-top action flick that puts the spotlight on stunt doubles. If the word of mouth is good enough this weekend, I can definitely see this being a genuine crowd pleaser and may even make more folks demand that the Academy act a stunt category to the Oscars. I seem to be higher on this movie than most folks that I’ve seen but I think The Fall Guy will do more than fine and dandy at the box office.
7.) A Quiet Place: Day One
Release Date: June 28th
Box Office Projection: 450 Million
Reason: Coming after the first two terrific installments, this is the one main horror franchise that has left the audience more intrigued to see what happens next. The only potential downside is that this acts as a prequel to those first two films with a completely different cast and director. The big looming questions is whether or not audiences love A Quiet Place for it’s memorable characters and recognizable actors or for it’s genuine scares, set pieces, and world building. If the quality for Day One is in the same ballpark as those first two Quiet Place movies, then I can certainly see it being in the same ballpark as the first two films in terms of box office results.
6.) If
Release Date: May 17th
Box Office Projection: $475 Million
Reason: There are two main factors here that will make If a good hit at the box office. First, it will be the biggest family friendly movie to come out in May (give or take The Garfield Movie) and will have enough time to stand out as that until Inside Out 2 and Despicable Me 4 come out. Secondly, it has the star power duo of Ryan Reynolds and John Krasinski. Those two factors alone are almost certain guarantee that this movie will do bank once it comes out in the next two weeks. It likely won’t be the biggest movie of the summer starring Mr. Blake Lively but it will definitely help for him to have a summer to remember.
5.) Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Release Date: May 10th
Box Office Projection: $500 Million
Reason: The next big summer entry is set to come out in theaters next month and looks as if it will be as visually delighting and narratively compelling as it’s rebooted predecessors. Disney has been doing everything in their power to promote this film by showing off the elements that folks loved the most about the previous three films. That in of itself will guarantee a strong first weekend, especially since it’s avoiding Memorial Day competition with Furiosa and The Garfield Movie. Just like with A Quiet Place: Day One, the biggest challenge that Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes will have to overcome is make people just as invested in this new cast and crew as they were with the previous ones. If it does that, then this will likely be in the top 5 movies of the summer.
4.) Twisters
Release Date: July 19th
Box Office Projection: $600 Million
Reason: It might be a bold claim on the surface to predict this one making 600 million and being one of the biggest movies of the summer but hear me out. The original Twisters is adored by many, it has the star power of Glen Powell, coming off his great work in Top Gun: Maverick, and everyone just loves a good disaster flick. The trailers have been doing it’s best to sell audiences on exactly what they want to see out of a disaster movie and that alone will likely get plenty of folks into the theaters. I could be dead wrong in claiming this but even if this does get bad reviews, I don’t see that scaring away audiences because this is the definition of a “critic proof” movie. By that note, this will likely be the most successful “critic proof” movie since The Super Mario Bros Movie. Hopefully, the discourse over the Rotten Tomato score won’t be as insufferable.
3.) Inside Out 2
Release Date: June 14th
Box Office Projection: $750 Million
Reason: Disney has been in quite a slump as of late with their theatrically released films, especially in terms of animation. Despite all the flops released last year, Elemental had some staying power and made just enough to be guaranteed a profit, making that and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 the only Disney movies to NOT be considered a financial disappointment. And considering this is a sequel to one of the most beloved Pixar films in recent memory, Inside Out 2 will be able to do some of the best numbers with Disney Animation since 2019, especially if the reviews are stellar. The recent track record alone might prevent it from reaching the same success as the first one but if it delivers, Inside Out 2 should be able to be the most successful theatrically released Pixar film since Toy Story 4 and possibly even the most successful theatrically released Disney film overall since Frozen 2.
2.) Deadpool & Wolverine
Release Date: July 26th
Box Office Projection: $900 Million
Reason: Many folks have claimed this will be a guarantee billion dollar hit but I think everyone needs to come back to reality for a moment. After many big movies underperformed last year, including two MCU installments, we might need to pump the breaks on such bold claims. As much as Deadpool & Wolverine is one of the most anticipated movies of the year and will likely be one of the biggest movies of the summer, that’s won’t guarantee 7 digits as prior big Marvel movies did. The R-rating alone (A reminder that there has been only ONE film to ever make a billion dollars!) along with the inconsistent quality of recent Marvel movies/shows will likely prevent it from reaching that billion dollar mark, with audiences still needing more consistent quality Marvel flicks to be fully won back. The promise of seeing Huge Jackman as Wolverine once again in yellow spandex, the buddy-cop routine with him and Ryan Reynolds’ Deadpool, and the absolute guarantee of multiple easter eggs, cameos, and fan service will make Deadpool & Wolverine one of the biggest movies of the summer almost certainly. When it comes to if it will be the first Marvel movie since Spider-Man: No Way Home to make a billion dollars, that more than remains to be seen in my eyes.
1.) Despicable Me 4
Release Date: July 3rd
Box Office Projection: $1.1 Billion
Reason: I don’t understand the appeal of these movies and I likely never will but one thing is certain though, this franchise certainly has an audience. Coming off a third entry that made a billion dollars and a second Minions movie that almost made a billion dollars, there is no reason to believe that Despicable Me 4 won’t be in that exact same territory in terms of box office success. Whether you like or hate them, Illumination Animation certainly knows how to get kids and families to theaters with their films and this will certainly be no exception. As I said before, the quality of any of these films is irrelevant and I highly doubt any kind of negative reviews will impact the box office results here. If I had to pick one big movie that is the saftest bet to make a billion dollars and be the highest grossing movie of the summer, it would be Despicable Me 4. I wish that was not the case but hey, there are plenty of folks out there that do. So, what do I now?
Other notes:
As for the other movies that got let off the list!
- The Garfield Movie nearly came close to topping Furiosa the 10th spot but unless it’s able to make noise at Memorial Day, I can see this being shipped to digital really quickly. It might do enough for a profit but not Hotel Transylvania and Spider-Verse numbers.
- Alien: Romulus looks like a return to traditional roots for the series in the form of Prey but it will likely have to pay for the sins of Prometheus and Alien: Covenant (Damn you, Ridley Scott!).
- The Bikeriders seems fun but won’t leave much impact until it hits streaming service like it originally was suppose to.
- Horizon: An American Saga could likely come and go depending on it’s quality.
- And if the trailers for Borderlands is anything to go by, this will likely be one of the biggest bombs of the summer. Why, Eli Roth?! Just why?!
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