Top 10 Biggest Summer Movies- Box Office Predictions

It’s now officially May which means it’s now officially summer movie season! The time of the year where the big blockbusters of the year are front and center in movie theaters everywhere now that the kids are out of school! Because of that, I figure I’d so something that I’ve yet to do on this blog, do a list of what I believe will be the top highest grossing films of the summer!

2023 was an absolute DISASTER at the box office during the summer time! That is largely due to the massive budgets from the majority of the big movies that came out that year along with just the overall inconsistent-to-poor quality of those big movies. And considering the fact there will likely be no Barbenheimer to save the summer, 2024 will likely be just as challenging for summer movies!

Even so, I think the 2024 summer movie season will give a big indication as to whether or not Hollywood is still recovering from the post-covid era of struggling to get people’s butts into theater seats or will this be the beginning of a resurrection for summer movies! We can only cross our fingers and hope for the best!

And considering I’ve been seeing multiple people put their own predictions of the top 10 biggest summer movies in terms of profit, why not throw my own hat in the ring and do my own list of this?! Keep in mind, these are the movies that I believe will be the highest grossing of the summer, not the ones that I desperately want to be at the very top. If that were the case, then Furiosa would at least be in the top 3 and Despicable Me 4 would be dead last on this list. This is list is not a matter of anticipating or movies I think will be objective the best, this is a list of the movies that I believe will be the most to least successful in terms of the top 10 movies of the summer.

Also, this is a ranking based on box office numbers worldwide and NOT domestic. That list would be harder and more complicated for me to judge. This is how I feel the box office numbers will hold for each film WORLDWIDE. Could I be dead wrong on every single one of these? Absolutely! But hey, it’s fun to be able to make predictions, right?!

Time to jump right in and put my predictions on what I believe will be the top 10 highest grossing films of the summer!

10.) Furiosa

Release Date: May 24th

Box Office Projection: $350 Million

Reason: I have all the faith in the world that George Miller will deliver with this film but I’m just not sure it’s one that most general audience will be interested in. Despite the massive praise that Mad Max: Fury Road got back in 2015, it only made a little over 380 million dollars worldwide, with a net loss somewhere between $20-$40 million. And considering this is basically a prequel spin-off surrounding a character from Fury Road but played by a completely different actress and with no Mad Max to be found in the marketing, that doesn’t inspire much confidence for Furiosa to top or even match that. I love to be proven wrong and the cult following of Fury Road will show up to this one but I wouldn’t be surprised if this ends up being the most frustrating Hollywood flop since last year Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning, especially with the rumored film budget being over 200 million dollars! Hopefully this prevails and we get more Mad Max films from George Miller with the time we still have with him!

9.) Bad Boys Ride or Die

Release Date: June 7th

Box Office Projection: $400 Million

Reason: This is likely the summer movie I’m the most curious to see how it performs. This is a sequel to a movie that was one of the last solid hits to come out before covid hit. If it’s able to hit all the right beats just like Bad Boys For Life did, then I can see this doing similar numbers to that and perhaps even top it. The only big question is whether or not everyone has forgiven Will Smith for slapping Chris Rock on stage yet?

8.) The Fall Guy

Release Date: May 3rd

Box Office Projection: $425 Million

Reason: The first big movie of the summer is set to arrive tomorrow and I think this will largely benefit from being that first big movie of the summer. It also helps that it’s an awfully good over-the-top action flick that puts the spotlight on stunt doubles. If the word of mouth is good enough this weekend, I can definitely see this being a genuine crowd pleaser and may even make more folks demand that the Academy act a stunt category to the Oscars. I seem to be higher on this movie than most folks that I’ve seen but I think The Fall Guy will do more than fine and dandy at the box office.

7.) A Quiet Place: Day One

Release Date: June 28th

Box Office Projection: 450 Million

Reason: Coming after the first two terrific installments, this is the one main horror franchise that has left the audience more intrigued to see what happens next. The only potential downside is that this acts as a prequel to those first two films with a completely different cast and director. The big looming questions is whether or not audiences love A Quiet Place for it’s memorable characters and recognizable actors or for it’s genuine scares, set pieces, and world building. If the quality for Day One is in the same ballpark as those first two Quiet Place movies, then I can certainly see it being in the same ballpark as the first two films in terms of box office results.

6.) If

Release Date: May 17th

Box Office Projection: $475 Million

Reason: There are two main factors here that will make If a good hit at the box office. First, it will be the biggest family friendly movie to come out in May (give or take The Garfield Movie) and will have enough time to stand out as that until Inside Out 2 and Despicable Me 4 come out. Secondly, it has the star power duo of Ryan Reynolds and John Krasinski. Those two factors alone are almost certain guarantee that this movie will do bank once it comes out in the next two weeks. It likely won’t be the biggest movie of the summer starring Mr. Blake Lively but it will definitely help for him to have a summer to remember.

5.) Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Release Date: May 10th

Box Office Projection: $500 Million

Reason: The next big summer entry is set to come out in theaters next month and looks as if it will be as visually delighting and narratively compelling as it’s rebooted predecessors. Disney has been doing everything in their power to promote this film by showing off the elements that folks loved the most about the previous three films. That in of itself will guarantee a strong first weekend, especially since it’s avoiding Memorial Day competition with Furiosa and The Garfield Movie. Just like with A Quiet Place: Day One, the biggest challenge that Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes will have to overcome is make people just as invested in this new cast and crew as they were with the previous ones. If it does that, then this will likely be in the top 5 movies of the summer.

4.) Twisters

Release Date: July 19th

Box Office Projection: $600 Million

Reason: It might be a bold claim on the surface to predict this one making 600 million and being one of the biggest movies of the summer but hear me out. The original Twisters is adored by many, it has the star power of Glen Powell, coming off his great work in Top Gun: Maverick, and everyone just loves a good disaster flick. The trailers have been doing it’s best to sell audiences on exactly what they want to see out of a disaster movie and that alone will likely get plenty of folks into the theaters. I could be dead wrong in claiming this but even if this does get bad reviews, I don’t see that scaring away audiences because this is the definition of a “critic proof” movie. By that note, this will likely be the most successful “critic proof” movie since The Super Mario Bros Movie. Hopefully, the discourse over the Rotten Tomato score won’t be as insufferable.

3.) Inside Out 2

Release Date: June 14th

Box Office Projection: $750 Million

Reason: Disney has been in quite a slump as of late with their theatrically released films, especially in terms of animation. Despite all the flops released last year, Elemental had some staying power and made just enough to be guaranteed a profit, making that and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 the only Disney movies to NOT be considered a financial disappointment. And considering this is a sequel to one of the most beloved Pixar films in recent memory, Inside Out 2 will be able to do some of the best numbers with Disney Animation since 2019, especially if the reviews are stellar. The recent track record alone might prevent it from reaching the same success as the first one but if it delivers, Inside Out 2 should be able to be the most successful theatrically released Pixar film since Toy Story 4 and possibly even the most successful theatrically released Disney film overall since Frozen 2.

2.) Deadpool & Wolverine

Release Date: July 26th

Box Office Projection: $900 Million

Reason: Many folks have claimed this will be a guarantee billion dollar hit but I think everyone needs to come back to reality for a moment. After many big movies underperformed last year, including two MCU installments, we might need to pump the breaks on such bold claims. As much as Deadpool & Wolverine is one of the most anticipated movies of the year and will likely be one of the biggest movies of the summer, that’s won’t guarantee 7 digits as prior big Marvel movies did. The R-rating alone (A reminder that there has been only ONE film to ever make a billion dollars!) along with the inconsistent quality of recent Marvel movies/shows will likely prevent it from reaching that billion dollar mark, with audiences still needing more consistent quality Marvel flicks to be fully won back. The promise of seeing Huge Jackman as Wolverine once again in yellow spandex, the buddy-cop routine with him and Ryan Reynolds’ Deadpool, and the absolute guarantee of multiple easter eggs, cameos, and fan service will make Deadpool & Wolverine one of the biggest movies of the summer almost certainly. When it comes to if it will be the first Marvel movie since Spider-Man: No Way Home to make a billion dollars, that more than remains to be seen in my eyes.

1.) Despicable Me 4

Release Date: July 3rd

Box Office Projection: $1.1 Billion

Reason: I don’t understand the appeal of these movies and I likely never will but one thing is certain though, this franchise certainly has an audience. Coming off a third entry that made a billion dollars and a second Minions movie that almost made a billion dollars, there is no reason to believe that Despicable Me 4 won’t be in that exact same territory in terms of box office success. Whether you like or hate them, Illumination Animation certainly knows how to get kids and families to theaters with their films and this will certainly be no exception. As I said before, the quality of any of these films is irrelevant and I highly doubt any kind of negative reviews will impact the box office results here. If I had to pick one big movie that is the saftest bet to make a billion dollars and be the highest grossing movie of the summer, it would be Despicable Me 4. I wish that was not the case but hey, there are plenty of folks out there that do. So, what do I now?

Other notes:

As for the other movies that got let off the list!

  • The Garfield Movie nearly came close to topping Furiosa the 10th spot but unless it’s able to make noise at Memorial Day, I can see this being shipped to digital really quickly. It might do enough for a profit but not Hotel Transylvania and Spider-Verse numbers.

  • Alien: Romulus looks like a return to traditional roots for the series in the form of Prey but it will likely have to pay for the sins of Prometheus and Alien: Covenant (Damn you, Ridley Scott!).

  • The Bikeriders seems fun but won’t leave much impact until it hits streaming service like it originally was suppose to.

  • Horizon: An American Saga could likely come and go depending on it’s quality.

  • And if the trailers for Borderlands is anything to go by, this will likely be one of the biggest bombs of the summer. Why, Eli Roth?! Just why?!

Is The Theatrical Experience Dead?

There was a time when you went to cinema to see the next big blockbuster, it didn’t just feel like you were in for a new movie, it felt like you were in for a new experience. Whether you loved the movie or hated it, there was a magical feeling of being in the cinema for the next big movie with a sold out crowd on opening night or weekend. I will never forget the experience of watching Avengers: Infinity War and Endgame on the very first night with the crowd being on cloud nine the whole way through. To experience all the laughs, cheers, excitement, and even tears to come from the crowd was something truly special and will always be a lasting memory for me! However, as we approach the end of 2023 and see where cinema is in it’s current state, there is a strong argument to be made about how the magic of watching films in cinema is long gone.

To say that 2023 has been a brutal year for Hollywood and cinema would be an understatement. Not only with the handful of strikes that have gone on for the majority of the year but the way that new franchise installments have underperformed vastly and bombed spectacularly at the box office. It’s not only in terms of flicks involving Disney and superheroes like the media has made it out to be but almost every notable franchise out there minus a few exceptions. And it’s not only one or two specific reasons that stand out for these movies tanking but there are MULTIPLE factors here. Multiple factors that honestly has been years in the making!

Because of that, let’s go over ever single logical factor here! Every single concrete reason as to why cinema is in the state that is in right now and why major changes need to happening if cinema will continue to evolve in the comfort of movie theaters everywhere!

The Covid-19 Pandemic

The Covid-19 pandemic changed the lives of every single life form on planet Earth. A worldwide plague that forced everyone to quarantine for the majority of 2020 along with parts of 2021 and 2022. Because of that, entertainment around the world was put on hold. Theaters were closed, films were delayed, and productions of basically all forms of entertainment were put on hold. Coming right after a massive year of the box office in 2019, where there were NINE films that grossed over a billion dollars worldwide (SEVEN of them disturbed by Disney), this could not have occurred at a worse time for Hollywood.

This led to many of the big movies that were to come out in 2020 and 2021 being sent to streaming with some occasional theater showings for some of them. With over half the theaters around the country being closed and streaming services being more popular than ever, of course most chose to stay at home and watching the upcoming movies on streaming services. However, that line of thinking of just waiting to watch movies in the comfort of your own homes has clearly played an impact on the way movie goers chose to watch films in the 2020s.

With a handful of exceptions, most new franchise installments that always tended to make a guarantee profit have underperformed or bombed in this post-Covid timeline. A large reason for that has to do with the fact that most audiences would rather wait for new movies to be able for digital or streaming services then shelling a few extras bucks on concessions and theater seats when new movies come out in cinema. The theatrical experiences for most big movies nowadays is just not worth it in the eyes of the consumer.

Strikes-a-palooza

2023 was a year that was litter with strikes going on in Hollywood, with some that either is still happening or most likely to happen soon. You have the writers strike that lasted for nearly five months, you have the actors strike that lasted for four months, there’s a strike going on at the moment with the VFX artists from Disney and Marvel, and if reports are to believe, you can bet that a strike within the gaming and animation industry is likely to occur sooner rather than later.

The strikes involving the writers and actors caused a halt in production of films along with the promotion and marketing of upcoming films being practically non-existent. This caused films like Dune: Part Two to be delayed and films that have been released during it such as The Marvels to suffer severely at the box office. While we might not have felt the direct impact of upcoming films in production that were halted because of the strike, we will certainly feel it in the next two to three years. Just as we all felt the impact of the previous writers strike with films that came out in 2009 or 2010. If the impact wave of Covid is about over, a brand new wave involving all the strikes is about to come. Surfs up!

Too Many Mid-icore Movies

While the other two reasons mentioned is a great argument of the amount of money studios spend on their movies and the amount of moment audience will spend to watch them, maybe the big reason as to do with the actual quality of the motion picture. Maybe it has to do with audience no longer wearing their rose-colored glasses and seeing how it’s become quantity over quality for a lot of franchises right there. Movies that just exist for the sake of existing and not because it’s something the audience actually want to see.

That would explain greatly how films like Barbie, Oppenheimer, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse have been the most notable successes at box office in 2023. Not just because they were names from a familiar brand but because of the strong impact they had on mainstream audiences which led to repeat theater viewings and strong worth of mouth. While not quite the most successful films of all time, it was able to exceed expectations, and possibly even surpass them due to how good those movies actually were. The same thing can’t be said about the other big movies that came out in 2023.

Fast X was seen as more of the same, over-the-top nonsense that has become accustomed to this franchise at this point. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts was seen as a passable if not disposable entry for a franchise that is still dealing with the aftermath of the overblown Bayformers flicks. The Flash was seen as a ugly CGI mess made solely for course correcting and the hope that having Michael Keaton back as Batman along with Sasha Calle’s Supergirl would be enough to overcome any shortcomings. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny was seen as an unnecessary and forgettable finale to a series that already had two definite finales beforehand. The Marvels, Shazam: Fury of the Gods, and Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom might have been considered “good enough” when superhero movies still felt like events but not in the year 2023. And Wish was seen as lackluster of an 100th year anniversary film for Disney that you could possibly imagine. While two or three of these might be enough to guarantee a solid three out of four stars ratings, they all did not receive the best reviews or the strongest word of mouth to make any of these worth buying a ticket for. Because of that, they were not able to make their money back or break even.

Even Good Movies Are Bombing

I’m sure most of you reading this thinks that the easy solution would be just to make better films and more people will be more eager to see them in theaters. While there have definitely been films this year that have accomplished just that, there have been other notable critically successful films that suffered at the box office regardless of it’s high quality.

These include the likes of Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves, Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning- Part 1, Blue Beetle, and Killers of the Flower Moon. All four of these films were ones that gained mostly very good reviews from critics and received a certified fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes but still lost money. While plenty will argue it had to do with awkward release dates or going ridiculously overbudget, it still doesn’t change the fact that these were all very good films in the eyes of critics and folks that went to see them but still underperformed or flopped at the box office.

This just goes to show you that even films that are well-acclaimed are not guarantee to be box office hits either. Sometimes a movie bombing has nothing to do with it’s overall quality, it’s that audience didn’t have the interest or knowledge of it’s existence to check them out while it was playing in theaters. There are plenty of good to great films in recent memory in the past that have been guilty of that: Dredd, Edge of Tomorrow, The Nice Guys, Blade Runner 2049, Annihilation, and Doctor Sleep just to name a few. While I’m sure all four of the 2023 films mentioned will find or already has found it’s audience through digital or physical media, the fact they were unable to gain them at the time it came out in theaters goes to show how even well quality films have suffered from other dire consequences.

Overbudgeting At It’s Finest

This is the one that everyone and their mother has pointed out but it’s certainly worth pointing out again. The amount of money that is being spend on these big movies is beyond ridiculous. Going past the traditional of $150 to $200 million budgets to big blockbusters in favor of now $250 to $300 million budgets. You have Elemental and Wish costing $200 million to make, The Flash costing $220 million to make, The Marvels costing $275 million to make, Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning- Part 1 cost $291 million to make, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny costing $300 million to make, and even Fast X costing $340 million to make. And that’s not even including the amount of money that was spent on trailers and marketing which you could add at least a few more million with. The overconfidence in box office has certainly been Hollywood’s weakness throughout the entirety of 2023.

I’m sure many people will point out how the larger budgets may have to do with Covid-19 halting many of these projects while they were in development but that doesn’t excuse how others movies released this year which made either just as much, more, or even less than any of the big movies were able to be a financial hit. You have John Wick: Chapter 4 which made a franchise record, 432 million worldwide, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse making over 600 million worldwide, which is a record for Sony Animation, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 making over 800 million worldwide, and The Super Mario Bros Movie making over 1.3 billion worldwide.

When looking at the movies mentioned from this year, only Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 was able to have a budget over 200 million dollars and was able to be a financial success. The rest of the movies either underperformed or flat out bombed at the box office. It makes you wonder how in the world movies such as The Super Mario Bros. Movie and Across the Spider-Verse were able to have a cheaper budget than Elemental despite having more impressive animation and more well known celebrities in the cast. Even so, it goes to show you how easy it is to make back your money on movies if you keep your expectations and budget in check without going too overboard.

If a movie making half or 3/4 of a billion dollars is considered underperforming, the studios need to take a good, hard look at themselves and figure out what has allowed that to happen. If you need to make at or near a billion for your big movie to make a profit, then that just speaks volume how little connection you have with yourself or the general public. Even if Covid was a factor in some extra money being spent, that can’t be the only factor to do it.

It must be no coincidence that the three highest grossing films of the year in Barbie, Mario, and Oppenheimer were all films that only cost 145 million or less. Take a hint, Hollywood!

Theater and Concession Prices Are Ridiculous

Is it me or has the prices for movie tickets and concessions skyrocketed quite a bit to the point of insanity? No matter what time or day it is, it seems like movie tickets nowadays cost a total of at least 12 to 15 dollars with 15 to 20 dollars involving food and beverage. That’s at least 25 to 35 dollars spent on one night at the movies, possibly more if you are going with friends or family members. That is just insane!

While there are certain theater companies out there that offer paid monthly subscriptions that helps save money with going to the movies such as Regal, not all theater companies are like that. At best, you will get a five or ten dollar discount after spending 50 to 100 dollars worth on your local theater and that’s basically it. And if you don’t find yourself using any of those subscriptions, that’s just a few extra bucks you got to fork over just for one or two times at the cinema.

Whether this is due to Covid-19 or the power of inflation, the increase of price in tickets and concessions has to play an effect on the way audience select the upcoming blockbusters they want to see. The movie going experience is more expense now than ever before, almost approaching the level of the expenses of gaming and sporting events. Because of that, it’s obvious the mainstream audience are mostly picking and choosing at random which movies they want to see on the big screen and which ones they would rather wait to watch in the comfort of their own homes. They’ll go see their Barbie and Oppenheimer but they will likely rather wait for The Marvels and Killers of the Flower Moon to come to streaming.

Maybe, just maybe, if theaters and cinema would have the urge to lower the prices on tickets and concessions or offer more events like Cinema Day, perhaps folks might be more willing to check films out in cinema when they arrive on the big screen.

Movies Are No Longer Events

To repeat what I said at the start of this article, remember when going to a movie of a big franchise felt like a cinematic event? Almost as if you are about to witness a moment in history you would be eager to tell your kids and grandkids many years later down the road? Is it me or has the movie theater experience lacked that hype and event feeling at least since 2020 rolled around?

There have been exceptions of course. You have the likes of Spider-Man: No Way Home, Top Gun: Maverick, Avatar: Way of Water, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Barbie, and Oppenheimer that were able to achieve that cinematic feeling for most moviegoers out there. But, those are really only exceptions compared to other franchise films that have come out since then. Instead of the feeling you are about to watch the cinematic equivealant of the World Series in theaters, it now feels like you are watching the cinematic equivalent of a Spring Training game.

When I saw The Marvels and The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes in theaters, the things that took me off guard the most when watching them was how uncinematic it felt watching those in theaters, especially compared to the series prior installments. I remember theaters being mostly packed when I saw the first Captain Marvel and the other Hunger Games films when I saw them in theaters, with the feeling that the hype and anticipation of so many folks was about to pay off. When I saw the newest installment of Captain Marvel and Hunger Games, I can only count on hand about eight to ten other folks with me in the theaters, which made about less than a quarter of the whole theater. If that’s not a sign how far the feeling of being in a movie theater has fallen, then I don’t know what is.

I could also give other examples, most recently with Aquaman: The Lost Kingdom set to be an absolute bomb despite the first film being the highest grossing DC film of all time, but the examples I just mentioned really gave me that depressing feeling about how the theater experience isn’t the same anymore and likely never will be.

This is likely because of how most franchise installments nowadays don’t feel like events anymore. Whether that’s due to Covid-19 or being oversaturated with them or just the overall declining quality with most of them, they just don’t feel as grand or rewarding as they used to be. Because of that, what’s the point of going to theaters anymore when you can just wait a couple of months to watch them in your own homes where you will save yourself extra cash? It’s like they said, vote with your wallet and that’s what many moviegoers have done since the pandemic rolled around.

How To Fix This?

There has been plenty of discussions going around on what Hollywood needs to do to fix their current problems. I’ll tell you right now that there is no simple solution to fix all of this. They have dug themselves into massive hole that it will take years to come even close to climbing out of it. If I were to give a simple bit of advice, it’s to probably go back to the “old school” ways of making films.

Don’t feel the need to go overbudget, don’t overthink every single bit of detail, don’t needlessly overwork your VFX artists, use every old fashioned camera trick and editing technique in the book, work at a reasonable time and pace, and most importantingly, make them all feel like films that deserve to be seen in movie theaters. Also, lowering the prices on tickets and concessions would help as well!

Of course, this won’t solve every single problem that Hollywood is currently having, especially with the amount of strikes that are likely gonna occur in the future, but at least it would give a reason as to why the theatrical experience should still be a thing in the year 2023 and onwards. Why going out to theaters to see the newest blockbuster when it comes out is important instead of just waiting a few extra months to watch on streaming or demand!

All of those things and much more need to happen if the theatrical experience is to thrive in the future. Otherwise, streaming and digital media will be the absolute future with no need for theaters and physical media.

Thanks a lot, Trolls: World Tours! You destroyed cinema!