Tag: box-office

2026 Box Office Predictions

AdamLeave a comment

We are about to enter 2026 and because of that, I thought it would be fun to make some predictions on how I will think certain movies will do at the box office next year!

As we head into the second half of the 2020s, there is a LOT of uncertainty surrounding movie theaters and the film industry in general. From the emergence of A.I. to yet another massive company merger between Netflix (or Paramount), Hollywood is changing in ways that could dangerously affect filmmaking and entertainment in the immediate future.

However, there have been many analysts that predict that 2026 will be the biggest year at the box office since Covid happened. Because of that, many still believe that there could be a possibility that movie theaters will be seeing a MASSIVE comeback next year, proving to studios that there is still a large audience out there that do love going to movie theaters. While I can certainly understand the optimism, I do think certain people NEED to come back to reality in regards to their box office predictions for next year.

Yes, I do believe that there will be plenty of heavy hitters next year that will find its fair share of box office success but it’s simply not 2019 anymore! A market that consists of six to eight billion dollar grossers is just not sustainable in today’s economy. (And the less said about the inevitable A.I. bubble burst that could affect the already shitty economy in massive ways, the better!) Because of that, I still don’t see the box office in 2026 being on the same level as it was in a pre-covid world and I don’t think we ever will see that ever again!

Keep in mind, I DO hope there are many hits at the box office this year! I DO hope that we get as many billion dollar grossers as possible! I want the theater experience to continue being alive and well! I’ve been going to movie theaters for over the past two decades and I still make very fond memories of the theatrical experience every single year that I go! But since we are now entering the sixth year in a post-covid timeline, I have to be as realistic as possible with my predictions of how the movie will do in theaters for 2026 and for the foreseeable future! And I have to make those predictions based on the box office results that we have gotten for the past four to five years!

I decided I will give my predictions on 20 films that are currently set to be released in 2026! Ten of those movies will be what I believe will be the top 10 highest grossing films of 2026 worldwide! The other ten will be ranked based on release date and will contain films that I think will either surprise people in the best way or absolutely disappoint them in the worst ways at the box office!

And I promise I am NOT making these box office predictions for movies in any personal biased way. I am making the predictions strictly based on how I personally think these movies will do at the box office. So if you get mad at me, I’m sorry but I gotta go with what my gut feeling is on how I think each individual film will do in theaters next year!

Let’s not waste any more time and dive straight into what I believe will be the #1 highest grossing film of 2026!

1.) The Super Mario Galaxy Movie

Release Date: April 3rd

Box Office Prediction: $1.5+ Billion

That’s right! I have Mario winning in 2026! After the past few years and seeing what has ended up being the most successful films of the decade thus far, I think it might be time we stop UNDERESTIMATING animated family films and video game adaptations while stop OVERESTIMATING superhero flicks. The Super Mario Bros. Movie was able to gross over $1.3+ billion worldwide in 2023 and I expect this sequel to gross even more than that.

With the inclusion of fan favorite characters such as Yoshi, Rosalina, and Bowser Jr. to adapting what is widely considered to be two of the best Mario games (if not the best video games) of all time in the Super Mario Galaxy series, I have little doubt that our beloved Italia….I’m sorry BROOKLYN plumbers will be able to make lightning strike twice once again! From what we’ve seen in the trailers, it looks like it will give the audiences what they enjoyed about the first movie and perhaps even more. Some might consider $1.5+ Billion to be a somewhat unrealistic number for a Mario movie sequel but then again, I’m pretty sure the same thing was said for the likes of Inside Out 2 and Zootopia 2.

With how animated family films and video game adaptations have been dominating at the box office in the 2020s just as superhero films dominated the box office in the 2010s, I have very little doubt that The Super Mario Galaxy Movie will take the crown as the highest grossing film of 2026!

2.) Avengers: Doomsday

Release Date: December 18th

Box Office Prediction: $1.4+ Billion

Marvel is not the juggernaut it once was! It’s very unlikely they will ever be able to recapture that same consistent lightning in the bottle they were able to from 2012 to 2019! However, films like Deadpool & Wolverine have proven that audiences will still show up to these movies if it includes characters that they are deeply invested in and/or at least STRONGLY familiar with! And with the return of Robert Downey Jr. as Iron Ma…….I mean Doctor Doom, Chris Evans as Captain America, Chris Hemsworth as Thor, and the original X-Men from the Fox Marvel universe, Marvel will certainly be looking to capitalize on the familiarly and nostalgia of their past to make this the gigantic hit it will need to be!

The main question though is how much longer can they lean into that before audiences are sick and tired of it all together?! Will there be enough easter eggs, callbacks, and fan service cameos to overcome it’s messy and rushed development cycle and make back on what certainly be an INCREDIBLY bloated budget?! Can they end this film in a way that will get audiences excited for Secret Wars in 2027 and whatever comes next for the MCU? The Russo Brothers have had a remarkable level of success with Marvel in the past but they might just have their work cut out for them here!

Still, if it does end up somehow sticking the landing on what has been an uneven as hell multiverse saga, I can see Doomsday doing Age of Ultron-level numbers (Remember when THAT was considered a box office disappointment for Marvel?). If not, then I can see this being another Rise of Skywalker situation, in just BARELY making it past the billion dollar mark and putting this franchise on hold for several years so they could rethink their strategy for the future. While this will still do more than enough to be qualified as one of the highest grossing films of the year, whether or not this will change the “post-Endgame MCU bad” narrative remains to be seen!

3.) Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Release Date: July 31st

Box Office Prediction: $1.2+ Billion

Even in an era where superhero fatigue is at an all-time high, Spider-Man will ALWAYS be a box office draw no matter what! Him and Batman have proven themselves constantly to be perhaps the lone superhero IPs that can still draw box office hits in the most uncertain times of the genre based on their names alone, at least if the success of No Way Home ($1.9+ billion), The Batman ($772+ million), and Across the Spider-Verse ($690+ million) is anything to go by.

And NO, this will NOT be a No Way Home box office juggernaut but that should be expected considering this will (likely) not have the nostalgia of the good old days with William Dafoe and Tobey Maguire to fall back on. A more reasonable comparison should be that of Far From Home, which was able to successfully ride the cocktails of Avengers: Endgame with $1.1+ billion. I expect similar numbers to that, if not a bit more.

Between the additions of fan favorite Marvel characters such as The Punisher, Hulk, and whoever the heck Sadie Sink is suppose to be playing along with there being a decent amount of time since the last Spider-Man movie came out to generate hype, Brand New Day will act like the golden era of Marvel never left and should very easily be a success for Sony and Marvel.

4.) Toy Story 5

Release Date: June 19th

Box Office Prediction: $950+ Million

Toy Story is back…….again! For the supposed final (?) time……again! Yeah, as much as we all love to complain about Disney and Pixar making nonstop sequels, we all know why they get made! Because they are basically the only thing that makes Mickey Mouse and Woody a butt load of money nowadays! Just look at the box office numbers of Inside Out 2 and Zootopia 2 compared to Wish and Elio! However, I do think it will fall short of the billion dollars that Disney and Pixar expect this to make!

To compare the box office numbers of the last two Toy Story movies, Toy Story 4 made $1.073+ billion about nine years after Toy Story 3, which made around $1.066+ billion. That’s less than a seven million dollar increase between these two films despite being nearly a decade apart! Thrown in the negative scrutiny that has hit Toy Story 4 (At least online!) since its release in 2019 and the overall fatigue of this franchise (Remember the spectacular bomb that was Lightyear?!) and I can see this missing the billion dollar mark this time around!

There will still be plenty of kids and families that will go see this film in drones to make it at least flirt with the billion dollar mark but I do expect Toy Story 5 to take a bit of a nosedive from previous films when it comes to box office numbers! It should still do strong but just not the best!

5.) Minions 3

Release Date: July 1st

Box Office Prediction: $850+ Million

I may not understand the appeal of these films but there’s no denying that this is a very consistent franchise at the box office! Since 2010, Illumination Animation has been able to crack the code on how to make crowd pleasing animated flicks for young kids, forcing their parents to take them to the movie theaters every other summer to see the newest Despicable Me and Minions movie that comes out.

In regards to the installments that have come from this franchise post-covid, Minions: The Rise of Guru was able to make $940+ million in 2022 and Despicable Me 4 made $971+ million in 2024! Due to a much more crowded summer than in 2022 and 2024, having to compete with other family flicks such as Toy Story 5 and Moana (2026), I do expect this one to take a tad decline as well, in a similar way to Jurassic World: Rebirth was with Universal’s other money making franchise. Much like the latest installment last summer in the dino-verse, this will do strong but just not as strong as before!

Between Minions 3 and The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, Illumination Animation will definitely be eating GOOD for 2026! Somewhere, Disney must be sweating!

6.) The Odyssey

Release Date: July 17th

Box Office Projection: $800+ Million

I feel like I need to defend myself here when I really shouldn’t! To be sure, a film like this making at least 800 million dollar signs in this day and age should be seen as a MAJOR accomplishment! There is no other filmmaker working today other than Christopher Nolan that could generate this level of excitement with a project such as The Odyssey! When you have people pre-ordering their tickets for a film that won’t even be out in a year, you know you have a big hit on your hand!

However, I don’t see this being on the same level as Oppenheimer (which made $975+ million) as it won’t have the “Barbenheimer” hype attached to it and will have to compete against much stronger films throughout the summer compared to what Nolan had to compete against in 2023. Not to mention, the potential loss of its IMAX screens after it’s first two weeks due to Spider-Man: Brand New Day could greatly affect repeated viewings for its theatrical release!

This will still certainly be in the top 10 highest grossing films of the year! Christopher Nolan is perhaps the one director working today to where his name attached to a film alone will guarantee box office success (Every film that Nolan has directed since 2008 has been able to achieve this mark, even Tenet during the covid year!). However, the road to doing Oppenheimer level numbers will be much tougher for Mr. Nolan this time around!

7.) Michael

Release Date: April 24th

Box Office Prediction: $750+ Million

Now, THIS is one that I can see doing even better than my current prediction. Michael Jackson is no doubt the most popular musician of all time. With the high trailer numbers and the multiple generations of fans that MJ has gained throughout the course of several decades, there should be no reason to doubt his annual biopic will be a huge theatrical success. Except for one thing: his controversial backstory.

And I’m not just talking about the supposed made-up rumors of his past that have been debunked numerous times! I’m talking more of what’s come out recently with his connections to a certain someone that shall not be named because I don’t want to get banned from this website! Although MJ still has yet to be proven guilty of any particular involvement, I do wonder if more info comes out of of that before the film’s release, could that possibly affect the box office numbers for this movie?

If not, then I could easily see Michael sliding up even higher on the list and possibly even topping Bohemian Rhapsody as the highest grossing musical biopic of all time. This seems like the kind of film that will get people who don’t go to theaters anymore off their couch, similar to the likes of Top Gun: Maverick and Oppenheimer. However, just to play it safe, I’m still going with a solid 750+ million. Even though this film will be released in April, this should be seen as the true kick-off to the summer movie season of 2026!

8.) Moana (2026)

Release Date: July 10th

Box Office Prediction: $700+ Million

This is the one that I’m probably gonna get the most hate for but I have my reasons to NOT put this among the potential billion dollar grossers of the year! Moana is undoubtedly one of the most popular Disney brands right now, with the original animated film being the most streamed movie ever on Disney Plus and its sequel making a billion dollars just a year ago! What will likely hold this film back other than the crowded family summer movie season is its lack of nostalgia factor!

Live-action remakes like The Lion King (2019) and Lilo & Stitch (2025) were able to be the billion dollar grossers they did BECAUSE of the nostalgia attached to those films which gave kids enough time to grow up, become nostalgic for the original animated Disney classics, and have raised kids of their own to share the theatrical experience with! Moana (2026) will be coming out at a time where the original animated film won’t even be fully 10 years old yet and just a year and a half after its animated sequel came out! Nostalgia only works when you give the kids enough time to actually grow up and become nostalgic for something.

It will still be a solid success since the Moana brand is still strong and has grown even stronger in recent years but I’m just not sure there will be enough support from kids and families this time around to watch a (likely) inferior live-action version of an original animated film they already love to guarantee a billion dollars!

9.) Dune: Part Three

Release Date: December 18th

Box Office Prediction: $650+ Million

To make some clarifications, this prediction is NOT because I actually think Warner Bros is gonna stick with that December release date alongside Avengers: Doomsday! Despite what it’s been reported, I’m more than confident that the release date will be pushed up to October, switching with one of the other films that WB has planned for the fall, probably with either Tom Cruise’s Digger or M. Night Shyamalan’s Remain. Mr. Villeneuve likely wants to move on from this film ASAP so he can focus on the James Bond film he is currently attached to that’s set for release in 2028. And also NO, this is NOT based on the Netflix and Warner Bros merger because a.) I don’t even think the merger will be 100% complete by then and b.) WB still has films contracted to be in theater screens through 2029, which Netflix MUST respect if they want to avoid lawsuits. This prediction alone is based on the book which this third chapter is based on, Dune Messiah.

Not to give too many spoilers but Messiah was a rather divisive story that has been constantly debated among fans since the book was published back in 1969. It follows up the story of Paul Atreides in rather unexpected and subversive ways, which many people deemed to be very unsatisfying and unfulfilling to his story. And following the negative reactions to a film like Joker Folie A Deux, a whole “pull the rug from underneath” approach to storytelling can be quite alienating to common moviegoers!

I still do trust Denis Villeneuve to find some way to make the conclusion to Paul’s story satisfying in ways that will leave most audiences satisfied! But at its worst, I wouldn’t be surprised for Dune: Part Three to fall short of its predecessor in the same way that Wicked: For Good did (which is currently set to make at least 200 million dollars LESS than it’s predecessor). I guess there can be a price to pay for sticking too closely to the source material! Just ask Edgar Wright!

10.) Jumanji 4

Release Date: December 11th

Box Office Prediction: $625+ Million

Did you know that a new Jumanji movie is coming out next December? You don’t?! Well, there is! After a seven-year absence (that seems to be quite a trend), Sony is bringing back the Jumanji crew once again with a 4th installment that has still yet to be officially titled!

Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle was able to gross nearly a billion dollars worldwide back in 2017 at a total finish of $962.5 million! The Next Level took a dip in 2019 but still grossed a strong $800+ million! Considering how much time has passed between the last installment and how much the theatrical landscape has changed since then, I do expect the next installment to make less than the last two but (if the budget is in check) it should be considered a modest hit that should satisfy the higher ups at Sony.

The only question is here is whether or not Avengers: Doomsday and (at least at that moment) Dune: Part Three will kill any sort of legs and momentum this film could contain, just like how Barbenheimer was able to successfully bury Mission: Impossible- Dead Reckoning during the summer of 2023! Time will tell but considering how well-received the last two installments were, this should do just fine!

And now here are predictions for ten other films that are currently set to be released in 2026! This is not in order of box office success but by the current release dates.

28 Years Later: The Bone Temple

Release Date: January 16th

Box Office Prediction- $125+ Million

28 Years Later was able to gross $150+ million during the summer but its divisive reception could sink this one a bit down. If The Bone Temple is able to finish what its predecessor started in a satisfying way, it might push a bit higher. If not, then I expected quite a decrease from it.

Scream 7

Release Date: February 27th

Box Office Prediction-$150+ Million

It’s nice to see Neve Campbell return after her brief hiatus in Scream VI along with all the members of the cast from the original Scream but Paramount’s firing of Melissa Barrera and the absence of Jenna Ortega has put quite a rain cloud above this installment. It should still do fine but the controversy surrounding Scream 7 among the fanbase will likely cause it to make less than the previous film.

Hoppers

Release Date: March 6th

Box Office Prediction-$375+ Million

I’m higher on this one than most people as I do think the fact this latest Pixar film will involve a talking furry animal of some sort will attract international markets this time around (Just askZootopia 2!). Plus, it will have the benefit of acting as the sole theatrically released animated kids film until Mario comes out the next month. That being said, original animated films are a TOUGH sell nowadays. Between Hoppers, Disney’s Hexed, DreamWorks’s Forgotten Island, and Sony’s Goat, western animation studios will have to work hard to get their latest original animated films to be a success.

Project Hail Mary

Release Date: March 27th

Box Office Prediction-$575+ Million

I’m surprised more people aren’t talking about this being a modest box office hit! The Martian was able to gross $630+ million in 2015 and I can see this doing similar numbers. It’s got a likable lead in Ryan Gosling, an extremely talented directing duo in Phil Lord & Chris Miller (Their first film they’ve directed since 2014’s22 Jump Street!) and is based off a very popular book from the same author as The Martian. If the cast and crew are able to work their magic, I can see Project Hail Mary fighting for a spot in the top 10 highest grossing films both domestically AND worldwide!

The Devil Wears Prada 2

Release Date: May 1st

Box Office Prediction- $450+ Million

Here’s another box office hit that I think will be a delightful surprise. The original Devil Wears Prada has certainly earned a cult following since its release in 2006 and I truly believe fans of the original will show up to support Meryl Streep and Anne Hathaway once again 20 years later. Between this, Barbie, and Wicked, it seems like Hollywood has finally got the memo that women will show up to movies if you actually make movies that cater to them!

Mortal Kombat II

Release Date: May 15th

Box Office Prediction-$275+ Million

The first Mortal Kombat film was a flop when it came out in 2021 but that was during a time when there was so much uncertainty surrounding covid and Warner Bros were releasing their films on streaming on the same day as theaters. With the sequel getting a more proper theatrical release and the trailers indicating this will deliver the goods that fans wanted from the first film, I can see this doing quite well this time around, at least around on par with the Five Nights At Freddy’s movies.

The Mandalorian & Grogu

Release Date: May 22nd

Box Office Prediction- $400+ Million

Whoever at Lucasfilm thought that the first Star Wars movie released in seven years should be an extension of a Disney Plus show that ended three years ago deserves to be banned from Hollywood! The recognition of Mando & Baby Yoda will (hopefully) get this one to cross the 400 million dollar mark but that’s it! Whatever momentum that Star Wars gained last year with the theatrical re-release of Revenge of the Sith and the second season of Andor will be GREATLY swiped away here!

Supergirl

Release Date: June 26th

Box Office Prediction- $350+ Million

I will definitely get tomatoes thrown at me for this one but there are PLENTY of reasons for concern here. While Superman (2025) did fine overall and just enough to land in the top 10 of the year, its international numbers have shown that audiences overseas are just not into (most) superhero movies the way they were a decade ago. Also, being sandwiched in between Toy Story 5 and Minions 3 along with being followed up by Moana (2026), The Odyssey, and Spider-Man: Brand New Day certainly doesn’t help either. Perhaps good reviews and word-of-mouth might get this over $400+ million but I can’t help but feel like Supergirl will be 2026’s Furiosa/Ballerina, a well-received female-led film in a mostly male dominated genre that general audiences couldn’t be bothered to go see in theaters. Just like what Supergirl said in the trailer, Superman might see the good in everything but I see the truth!

Clayface

Release Date: September 11th

Box Office Prediction- $175+ Million

Just like with Supergirl, positive reviews and good word of mouth MIGHT help push this to $200 million! But, like who is asking for a Clayface movie?!?!

The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping

Release Date: November 26th

Box Office Prediction- $500+ Million

Here’s a sequel that I can see doing much better than the last film! With a much more expansive cast (including the return of Jennifer Lawrence and Josh Hutcherson) and being based on a critically acclaimed book, there’s little doubt in my mind that this Hunger Games prequel will top the previous film in just about every way! May the odds be forever in MY favor!

Summer 2025 Box Office Breakdown

AdamLeave a comment

Movie theaters are in trouble! That’s at least what I’ve been hearing ever since Covid! Ever since that disastrous turn of events that shut down the whole world for a year or two, movie theaters all around the world has seen a significant decline in ticket and concessions sales. That hasn’t stopped Hollywood from doing everything in their power to keep the movie theater going experience alive. Even in the age of streaming, pirating, and Tik Tok, this is a battle that the movie making folks in southern California are willing to fight until they suddenly can’t.

And I don’t think there has been a period of time that has determined just how “well” movie theaters are going throughout the 2020s than this year’s lineup of summer blockbusters. Five years removed of movie theaters being shutdown and two years of infamous strikes, this is probably the most “back to normal” feeling that Hollywood has felt since pre-Covid. If this summer saw yet another underperforming two to three months, then there must come serious questions as to how long movie theaters have before they go extinct.

However, now that summer has come and gone, it’s time to see the results of how all the main feature films did in movie theaters everywhere. And the results are…….complicated.

In case you are wondering how I am judging it, I am gonna look at each major wide release that came out at the start of May to the middle of August. I’m gonna list the film’s budget, how much the film made at the box office, what the projected break even point likely was, how much the film gain in profit, and whether or not it should been seen as a success, flop, or break even point for the studios.

I’m only gonna use math that most tend to use when judging how a film does at the box office. Mostly by taking the budget, times that by 2.5X to cover the whole budget surrounding production and marketing, and seeing how much money it made or lose as a result.

Again, that is not the case for EVERY single one of these movies and this is NOT a direct result as to how the studios view each film from a financial standpoint. This is just my personal guess and opinion as to how each one of these films should be viewed as.

Plus, it’s also worth mentioning that ever since Covid, the definition of “success” is now quite different in the eyes of many producers in Hollywood. Who’s to say that just because a film didn’t do so great in it’s opening two weeks in theaters that the studios sees it as a failure when it became a big hit on digital and streaming? That alone could make it a “success” in the minds of studios.

It is worth remembering that a film’s overall success isn’t just determined based on how it did in theaters but also how it fared in terms of digital, streaming, and physical media sales. Just because not enough people showed up in theaters to give the film profit doesn’t mean people didn’t show it’s support when said film became accessible to all of our home media.

Regardless, I hope you all enjoy this analysis and gives you a good indication of how films are still thriving/struggling in movie theaters!

Thunderbolts*

Budget: $180 Million

Box Office: $382.4 Million

Break Even Point: $450+ Million

Gain/Lose: -$67.6+ Million

Verdict: Flop

Despite the mostly positive reception from fans and critics alike, this could not have been a bigger disappointment at the box office if it tried. Regardless if it has to do with the film starring around D- list MCU characters that most people aren’t familiar or superhero/Marvel fatigue in general, Thunderbolts* most certainly had to pay the price for previous sins surrounding these kind of films. It may have done solid ratings on Disney Plus and did at least kick of the summer movie season better than say…..The Fall Guy last year, but it did follow the tread that most MCU films post-Endgame have suffered from in underperforming box office returns. Between this, Brave New World, and another film to be mentioned later, 2025 has not been so kind to the Marvel Cinematic Universe from a box office standpoint.

Final Destination Bloodlines

Budget: $50 Million

Box Office: $313.9 Million

Break Even Point: $125+ Million

Gain/Loss: +$188.9+ Million

Verdict: Success

The first installment from this long-running franchise since 2011 more than certainly succeeded expectations. Final Destination Bloodlines acted as a nice love letter to the franchise while also acting as a bittersweet epilogue to the amazing career of the late great Tony Todd. I wouldn’t be surprised if we end up getting a sequel 2-3 years time (although hopefully no A.I. Tony Todd is needed). If there is one thing that 2025 has taught theatrically released films, it’s that if you have a low enough budget and give plenty of breathing time in the theaters before dumping it to digital and streaming, you will indeed see some promising theatrical profit in return.

Lilo & Stitch (2025)

Budget: $100 Million

Box Office: $1.037+ Billion

Break Even Point: $250+ Million

Gain/Loss:+$787+ Million

Verdict: Success

Despite all the discourse online about this one and what the true meaning of “ohana” is, it shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone that the 2025 live-action incarnation of Lilo & Stitch was able to be the most successful film of the summer along with Hollywood’s only billion dollar grosser thus far. There was an entire generation of millennials that grew up with the original animated classic and they all most certainly showed up during Memorial Day weekend to take their kids to experience the inferior version of one of Disney’s very best films in their history. At least it’s not……whatever the hell Snow White was. It’s because of this, I wouldn’t be surprised if Disney changes their mind on bringing Rapunzel and Elsa to the live-action screens in the near future.

Mission: Impossible- The Final Reckoning

Budget: $300-400 Million

Box Office: $598.8+ Million

Break Even Point: $750+ Million to $1+ Billion

Gain/Loss: -$151.2-$401.2+ Million

Verdict: Flop

There was a lot going against Tom Cruise’s last hurrah with his nearly three decade long action franchise and unfortunately, The Final Reckoning was no match for it. Suffering from a bloated budgeted, going head-to-head with Lilo & friends on Memorial Day weekend, and being part of a franchise that arguably peak seven years ago with Mission: Impossible- Fallout, it’s clear that audiences are ready to move on from Tom Cruise damn near killing himself for our amusement. I guess we’ll have to see if Top Gun 3 will be able to replicate the success of Maverick. If not, then we might have to accept that Tom Cruise is not the “Hollywood Jesus” that his ego claims himself to be and that the G.O.A.T. may indeed be washed.

Karate Kid Legends

Budget: $45 Million

Box Office: $115.8+ Million

Break Even Point: $112.5+ Million

Gain/Loss:+$3.3+ Million

Verdict: Broke Even

You all COMPLETELY forgot this movie came out, didn’t you? As a matter of fact, most of you probably didn’t even know this movie existed. This odd culmination of the Karate Kid franchise up to this point clearly failed to set the world on fire but thanks to it’s shocking low budget, it might’ve done just enough to not be a complete failure. And it most certainly probably was able to pick up any remaining losses with it’s digital release. I don’t know what this means for the future for this franchise but at least Karate Kid: Legends can rest easily knowing it’s far from the biggest failure to come out this summer, even if it’s easily among the most forgettable movies of the year.

Ballerina

Budget: $90+ Million

Box Office: $137.2+ Million

Break Even Point: $225+ Million

Gain/Loss:-$87.8+ Million

Verdict: Flop

2025 has not been so kind to Lionsgate and Ballerina was certainly no exception. Despite the presence of Keanu Reeves himself and the positive response from critics and fans, this John Wick spin-off failed to impress at the box office. Perhaps had the budget remain closer to the original John Wick than John Wick: Chapter 4, this could’ve managed to squeeze a profit (similar to a similar female-lead action flick in Atomic Blonde) but not with it’s 90+ million dollar budget (which a good chunk of it most certainly stemmed from reshoots). Whether it’s due to the franchise finally running on fumes or audience suffering from “girl boss” fatigue, Ballerina fell way below expectations, to the point where future John Wick spin-offs and perhaps even a John Wick 5 itself might just be up in the air.

How To Train Your Dragon (2025)

Budget: $150 Million

Box Office: $635.5+ Million

Break Even Point: $375+ Million

Gain/Loss:+$260.5+ Million

Verdict: Success

DreamWorks has finally threw their hat in the ring with live-action remakes and just like with Disney themselves, while the quality may not talk the talk, the box office results can certainly walk the walk. How To Train Your Dragon (2025) was able to capture the hearts of families and mainstream audiences in similar ways that the original animated version did back in 2010 along with the better live-action remakes from Disney (or at least the ones that were able to make a billion dollars). With the success of this film and a sequel in the works, I wouldn’t be surprised to see our favorite ogre and kung panda warrior getting their live-action treatment in the near future. But hey, if it helps cover for any potential loss that The Bad Guys 2 might have, then it might certainly be worth it!

Materialists

Budget: $20 Million

Box Office: $103.5+ Million

Break Even Point: $50+ Million

Gain/Loss:+$53.5+ Million

Verdict: Success

And who says original rom-coms are dead?! Despite the rather mixed audience response, Materialists was able to act as the most successful rom-com in recent memory that does NOT start Glen Powell and Sydney Sweeney. And as much as everyone and their mother claim to be sick and tired of seeing Pedro Pascal everywhere, he can certainly help carry an original project such as this, along with Chris Evans and Dakota Johnson of course. Not much to say here than yeah, this did quite well at the theaters for this kind movie and A24 should most certainly see this as a success.

28 Years Later

Budget: $60 Million

Box Office: $151.2+ Million

Break Even Point: $150+ Million

Gain/Loss:+$1.2+ Million

Verdict: Broke Even

This divisive sequel/part one of a two-part story did just enough to break even at the box office but not much else. Perhaps had 28 Years Later been more positively received from mainstream audiences and/or it wasn’t relying on the two-part gimmick, this could’ve done much better. But nevertheless, it did at least enough to justify a Part Two getting made, which can hopefully pick up any sort of financial slack that this film might’ve left behind.

Elio

Budget: $150-200+ Million

Box Office: $154+ Million

Break Even Point: $375 to $500+ Million

Gain/Loss: -$221 to $346 Million

Verdict: Flop

Just a summer after Inside Out 2 gave Pixar the smash box office hit they desperately needed, Elio took any sort of momentum that Pixar might’ve possibly gained and COMPLETELY tripped over itself. From a combination of lackluster marketing, trouble from behind-the-scenes/development, a bloated budget, and Disney doing everything in their power to erase this movie from existence, is it any surprised this film ended up being perhaps the biggest flop of the the summer and possibly the year? Maybe I should’ve known better after doing my summer box office movie predictions but I thought after Inside Out 2, people were ready to hop back on board with Pixar with seeing their film in theaters. Looks like I was dead wrong in that regard and man…….I wish I wasn’t!

F1

Budget: $200-300+ Million

Box Office: $626+ Million

Break Even Point: $500-750 Million

Gain/Loss:+$126+ to -$124 Million

Verdict: Success

There are probably many folks out there that are shocked to see this as being labeled as a success due to the film’s massive budget but F1‘s “success” or “failure” is much more complicated than most. First off, this is a partnership between Apple+ and Warner Bros. Apple was the one that funded the movie and would take credit for the success when the film arrives on digital and streaming, while Warner Bros was able to gain the profit from theater showings. Plus, this wasn’t so much about helping out theaters than it was about promoting the sport of F1 racing all across the world! Take all those factors in mind along with the fact that a movie in 2025 was able to make $600+ million that is NOT a superhero film, live-action remake, video game adaption, or an anime, F1 was most certainly a breakout success that helped add to a terrific year that Warner Bros has had in theaters!

M3GAN 2.0

Budget: $15-25+ Million

Box Office: $39.1+ Million

Break Even Point: $37.5-62.5 Million

Gain/Loss:+$1.6 to -25 Million

Verdict: Flop

This has to be the most BAFFLING failure of this summer! Not because it’s a shock that it bombed because the movie itself lacking quality compared to the first but because some of the most baffling decisions made from a business standpoint. From dumping the movie in the middle of summer when the original did just swell in January 2023 to advertising it as a sci-fi comedy instead of sci-fi horror, it’s like Blumhouse was doing everything in their power to ensure this would be a failure. If that was the case, then they MORE than certainly succeeded.

Jurassic World Rebirth

Budget: $180-225+ Million

Box Office: $867+ Million

Break Even Point: $450-562.5+ Million

Gain/Loss:+$305-418+ Million

Verdict: Success

Here is what was wildly considered the most surprising box office success story of Summer 2025 and…..I don’t necessarily know why. While the Jurassic Park franchise might’ve no longer be the billion dollar juggernaut that previous installments were, Rebirth did prove that people still love seeing dinosaurs on the big screen. And this time around they got to see dinosaurs AND Scarlett Johansson on the big screen! What better winning combo than that! Even if this franchise should’ve ended by now, don’t be surprised if Universal wants to keep the Jurassic ball rolling after the monster smash hit of the summer. Again, this might’ve not been a billion dollar gross but it did more than enough to be considered a success!

Superman (2025)

Budget: $225+ Million

Box Office: $615.7+ Million

Break Even Point: $562.5+ Million

Gain/Loss:+$53.2+ Million

Verdict: Success

Welp, here’s the most hotly debated success/failure story of the summer! Even though Superman (2025) has gained at least $53+ million based on traditional projections (or more according to Variety), there has been a serious argument that James Gunn’s take on Superman actually underperformed and even a failure. If we look at it through the mindset of Warner Bros back in 2013, you might have an argument. But in 2025, if we take the words from CEO David Zaslav and crew, it seems like they have much more manageable expectations and just needed to do enough to make a profit and do well in digital and physical sales to be considered a success. They know they can’t turn everything around in one movie like they thought they could a decade ago and are willing to be more patient in regaining the mainstream audience trust. Looking it that way, Superman (2025) was indeed a success. Sorry Snyder cult!

I Know What You Did Last Summer (2025)

Budget: $18+ Million

Box Office: $64.7+ Million

Break Even Point: $45+ Million

Gain/Loss:+$19.7+ Million

Verdict: Success

This might’ve been controversial among die-hard fans and mainstream audiences but thanks to a super low budget of just 18 million dollars, I Know What You Did Last Summer (2025) did good enough to at least guarantee it to be a success. Once again, the lower the budget, the easier it is for your film to be a profit in theaters. More studios should take notes on that, especially with what has come from the horror genre this year!

Smurfs (2025)

Budget: $58+ Million

Box Office: $120+ Million

Break Even Point: $145+ Million

Gain/Loss:-$15+ Million

Verdict: Flop

No one was asking for a new iteration of the Smurfs in 2025! Not kids! Not families! Not anyone! And they were ESPECIALLY not asking for a new iteration with Rihanna, James Corden, or Jimmy Kimmel (Although, PRO-FREEDOM OF SPEECH!)! Literally no one but Paramount should be shocked at the fact that this bombed! And even then, I think deep down they aren’t shocked at all either!

The Fantastic Four- First Steps

Budget: $200+ Million

Box Office: $521.5+ Million

Break Even Point: $500+ Million

Gain/Loss:+$21.5 Million

Verdict: Broke Even

This might’ve been the highest grossing MCU film of the year but it still disappointed greatly, compared to the highest grossing MCU films of prior years. This will likely mark the first year that an MCU film does NOT make it to the top 10 highest grossing overall films of the year since 2011. The Fantastic Four has certainly been more appealing to die-hard Marvel and comic fans than it did the mainstream audience but you can’t help but wonder how much better this would’ve done pre-2019. If adjusted projections are to go by, The Fantastic Four-First Steps will likely be the one MCU film to break even in 2025…..but that’s it. And for Marvel Studios standards, that’s quite underwhelming!

The Naked Gun (2025)

Budget: $42+ Million

Box Office: $102+ Million

Break Even Point: $105+ Million

Gain/Loss: -$3+ Million

Verdict: Broke Even

If we are talking about how much the 2025 incarnation of the The Naked Gun did in theaters, it might’ve fell just short of reaching it’s break even point. However, with making up any potential revenue loss with it’s release to digital and soon streaming, I would believe Paramount was more satisfied with how this one did than say……Mission: Impossible. I don’t think this did enough to “save” comedies or resurrected a genre of films that Hollywood has been quite picky to tackle for the better part of a decade but for what it’s worth, I believe this did just fine.

The Bad Guys 2

Budget: $80+ Million

Box Office: $225+ Million

Break Even Point: $200+ Million

Gain/Loss:+$25+ Million

Verdict: Broke Even

This one is quite a tongue twister. Largely impacted by a slew of summer movie competition along with pulling the trigger to the digital release so quicky, The Bad Guys 2 is more likely unable to match the success that the original did. However, due to working at a sizable budget and having solid digital sales thus far, it seems like it did just enough to match it’s break even point. While we might still get a third movie sometime in the future, I don’t think The Bad Guys franchise has become the success story that DreamWorks had envisioned it being, especially compared to the likes of Shrek, Kung Fu Panda, and How To Train Your Dragon. In that regards, it’s quite a same because this has been a damn good animated series of films thus far! Fingers crossed that a third movie gets made!

Freakier Friday

Budget: $42-45+ Million

Box Office: $152.3+ Million

Break Even Point: $105-112.5+ Million

Gain/Loss:+$39.8-47.3+ Million

Verdict: Success

I still don’t know why this was even made but thanks to it’s lower budget and modest box office projections, Jamie Lee Curtis and Lindsey Lohan’s Disney team-up that was 22 years in the making was able to exceed expectations without breaking any new ground. I guess it helps to have a sizeable budget and leaving plenty of breathing room between theater showings and digital/physical releases. If only Disney can get that same memo with everything else they do in the way they did with Freakier Friday.

Weapons

Budget: $38+ Million

Box Office: $266.4+ Million

Break Even Point: $95+ Million

Gain/Loss:+$170+ Million

Verdict: Success

Similar to Sinners and Final Destination: Bloodlines, Weapons was able to prove once again that you can win big in horror by playing small. This genuinely scary crowd pleaser was able to make the best with it’s modest budget to craft a smash hit, standing alongside with plenty of original horror films in recent memory. Even with what was a rather crowded area of theatrically released films at the time it came out, this was able to stand out swiftly to be a nice success story. Now let’s just see if director Zach Cregger can say the same for Resident Evil next year!

Nobody 2

Budget: $25+ Million

Box Office: $39.4+ Million

Break Even Point: $62.5+ Million

Gain/Loss:-$23.1+ Million

Verdict: Flop

Here’s a movie that did so poorly in it’s time in theaters that the studios pulled it completely from the big screens after five weeks and just dumped it to digital. To be fair, this is a rare case that I actually can’t blame the studio for making that movie so quickly. Whether it’s because too much time has passed since the original or it just flew under the radar for a lot of people, the sequel to Bob Odenkirk’s action franchise just did not get the same love and support that the original did (and even then, that didn’t really set the world of fire either). Between Nobody 2, The Final Reckoning, and last year’s flops of Monkey Man, Boy Kills World, and The Fall Guy, perhaps there isn’t as much of a crave for “masculine” action heroes that conservatives and alt-right online influencers would have you believe.

When you take all the box office results into account with the ways that most film analysts use to determine if the movie is a success or failure, this summer has had a total of nine movies that were successes, seven movies that were failures, and about five movies that did enough to break even.

What that tells me is that movie theaters are still not in a great spot but they are NOT ready to die out quite yet. While it’s a shame that certain films like The Fantastic Four- First Steps and Mission: Impossible– The Final Reckoning didn’t become the smash hits that were expected and that other films like Thunderbolts* and Elio ended up being massive bombs, this summer did show that there is at least a want and need for plenty of variety within theatrically released films.

You have live-action remakes, you have dinosaur action, you have horror thrills, you have action-comedies, you have rom-coms, and you have sports films! All of which were able to gain an audience in theaters and many of which were able to take some of the spotlight away from the kind of films that have dominated theaters in recent memory, particularly superheroes and video game adaptions.

That’s why I’m not too worried about the fact that a superhero film might not crack the top 10 of the year or that anime and re-releases might be taken more theater screenings! It doesn’t mean one genre is dying, it means more genres are EMERGING! The more genres of films that is resurrected and emerged, the more demographics are eager to see film in theaters, and the more money studios and theaters make! If Hollywood wants to keep theaters alive, THIS is the way to do it!

Because of that and more, I still believe there is still hope for movie theaters! There are still plenty of changes that need to be made (lower ticket prices/concessions, longer theatrical windows, longer time waiting for films to come to digital/streaming, more movie subscriptions/clubs….etc.) but if studios keep going with this direction while being able to contain a sustainable budget with most big movies they released, there might still be hope for movie theaters yet!

Top 10 Biggest 2025 Summer Movies- Box Office Predictions

AdamLeave a comment

It’s now officially May which means it’s now officially the summer movie season! The time of the year where the big blockbusters of the year are front and center in movie theaters everywhere now that the kids are out of school! Because of that, it’s time to do a list of what I believe will be the top highest grossing films of the summer!

With Hollywood continuing to struggle in the movie theater business post-covid, only God knows how many more summer movie seasons await. Although, theaters have been picking up great momentum in the box office as of late with the likes of A Minecraft Movie, Sinners, and the very successful re-release of Star Wars: Episode III- Revenge of the Sith, it’s unclear how long they will be able to carry that momentum throughout the rest of the year and even the future.

I think the 2025 summer movie season will give a big indication as to whether or not Hollywood is still recovering from the post-covid era of struggling to get people’s butts into theater seats or will this be the beginning of a resurrection for summer movies! We can only cross our fingers and hope for the best!

And considering I’ve been seeing multiple people put their own predictions of the top 10 biggest summer movies in terms of profit, why not throw my own hat in the ring and do my own list of this?! Keep in mind, these are the movies that I believe will be the highest grossing of the summer, not the ones that I desperately want to be at the very top. If that were the case, then Superman (2025) would be #1 and Jurassic World Rebirth would be dead last on this list. This list is not a matter of anticipation or movies I think will be objectively the best, this is a list of the movies that I believe will be the most to least successful in terms of the top 10 movies of the summer.

Also, this is a ranking based on box office numbers worldwide and NOT domestic. That list would be harder and more complicated for me to judge. This is how I feel the box office numbers will hold for summer movies WORLDWIDE from May to mid-to-late August. Could I be dead wrong on every single one of these? Absolutely! But hey, it’s fun to be able to make predictions, right?!

Time to jump right in and put my predictions on what I believe will be the top 10 highest grossing films of the summer!

10.) Karate Kid Legends

Release Date: May 30th

Box Office Projection: $300 Million

Reason: The Karate Kid franchise has had some solid popularity as of late with the smash hit Netflix series Cobra Kai, that just concluded its sixth and final season. With Legends acting as the first film entry of the franchise since The Karate Kid (2010), we see both Jackie Chan (the star of the 2010 film) and Ralph Macchio (the OG Karate Kid) coming together to train a new student in the ways of kung fu. I’m not sure how much fans out there have been eagerly awaiting for this combo or even another entry but if it’s able to capture a tiny bit of the magic of Cobra Kai, I can see Karate Kid: Legends being a solid crowd pleaser and a satisfying coming of a full circle for die-hard fans.

9.) F1

Release Date: June 27th

Box Office Projection: $400 Million

Reason: Ngl, if this movie were set to come out before Sinners, I probably would not have put this on the list. However, after the surprising success of that film, which will certainly get as strong of box office legs as it possibly can, it proves that audiences still have hunger and desire for original films. Add that to the star power of Brad Pitt (recent controversy aside) and director Joseph Kosinski coming high off of Top Gun: Maverick, I can see F1 being the exact kind of smash hit that Hollywood needs for these kinds of films. The only question is whether or not the studios will let this one grow as the summer goes on and the mega July blockbusters start coming into play.

8.) Thunderbolts*

Release Date: May 1st

Box Office Projection: $450 Million

Reason: The first main blockbuster of the summer just came out in theaters and is set to at least kick off the summer box office better than last year’s The Fall Guy did. With strong reviews and early positive word-of-mouth, Thunderbolts* can most certainly outperformed early expectations and make enough in the long run to be able to make a profit. It’ll be entertaining to see how the media and YouTube will try to spin this film as being an actual failure because it didn’t make a billion dollars overnight or what was once considered “good enough” for a MCU/superhero movie is no longer good enough anymore. The only downside, other than a sudden Multiverse of Madness second week drop off, could be seeing how this is able to stack up once the likes of Mission: Impossible and Lilo & Stitch comes around and if Disney and Marvel will have cold feet early and dump it to Disney Plus once Fantastic Four is out.

7.) Elio

Release Date: June 20th

Box Office Projection: $575 Million

Reason: Last year saw Pixar’s most successful and crowd-pleasing film ever at the box office with Inside Out 2, the highest grossing animated film at the time of it’s release. However, they now face a different challenge with Elio, a new and original animated flick that has been delayed multiple times. With no Woody, Buzz, or Lightning McQueen in sight, it will more than certainly have to rely on its stellar quality to make folks want to see it in theaters rather than wait for it on Disney Plus. If Pixar and Disney can pull off the same strategy they did with Elemental and Inside Out 2, by keeping it in theaters as long as they can and saving the physical/digital releases until Fall, then I can see this making a solid 575 million dollar signs, which would most certainly be good enough. Again, this will all likely matter if the finished film is actually any good.

6.) Mission: Impossible- The Final Reckoning

Release Date: May 23rd

Box Office Projection: $600 Million

Reason: Tom Cruise is here to “save” cinema one last time with Mission: Impossible- The Final Reckoning, acting as the potential final entry to the near three decade-long running Mission: Impossible film franchise. However, I still can’t help but feel like this one is gonna underperform it’s skyrocket expectations at the box office. While making $600 million sounds like a notable success on paper, the film’s reported $400 million budget and coming off of the underwhelming (at least in terms of box office) Dead Reckoning will give The Final Reckoning a near-impossible mission to accomplish. Also, facing immediate competition with Lilo & Stitch won’t make things much easier either. I’m always rooting for this franchise but it has all odds against itself this time around. Hopefully, there’s enough of Tom Cruise running to save this film this time around.

5.) How To Train Your Dragon (2025)

Release Date: June 13th

Box Office Projection: $650 Million

Reason: After the mixed-at-best results of Disney live-action remakes since 2010, DreamWorks and Universal has decided to take their stab at it by adapting the beloved animated How To Train Your Dragon in live-action form. With a sequel already being announced and set for a 2027 release date, it’s clear that DreamWorks and Universal are expecting this one to perform well. If it’s able to live up to the promise of being a faithful transition to the animated film and avoid any Snow White-level of controversy, then How To Train Your Dragon (2025) should most certainly make the money it needs to and act as a proper re-introduction to DreamWorks’ most acclaimed animated film series to date.

4.) The Fantastic Four- First Steps

Release Date: July 25th

Box Office Projection: $750 Million

Reason: I don’t care what YouTube says or what outrageous out of context quote got social media in a pansy, this film is gonna do numbers at the box office and be Marvel’s most successful film released in 2025. Even with those that have been sour on Marvel and previous Fantastic Four incarnations, they will still owe it to themselves to see Marvel Studios themselves take their first stab at adapting Marvel’s first family onto the big screen. With the build-up to Avengers: Doomsday looming and Thunderbolts* being a potential box office success, The Fantastic Four- First Steps should have no problem in carrying that momentum from Marvel and set the stage for Doomsday and Secret Wars nicely. If I look like a foul in two months, so be it. But for now, I can’t help but have positive expectations for this one!

3.) Superman (2025)

Release Date: July 11th

Box Office Projection: $825 Million

Reason: There’s plenty of reasons to be positive and negative about Superman (2025). This is a film that sees Superman returning to the big screen in his first standalone film since 2013, the start of a brand new cinematic universe, and what will likely be viewed as the film that gives the superhero genre the shot in the arm it needs. And it’s whole “This is the movie the world needs right now!” marketing should most likely play a positive impact. However, conflicting reports of the film being released overseas along with not knowing the exact expectations that Warner Bros has for this film could hurt it in the long run, which could make James Gunn’s DC universe over before it even begins. Still, this should be one of the most talked about and discussed movies of the summer regardless and will likely attract enough audience to give it a watch on the big screen.

2.) Jurassic World Rebirth

Release Date: July 2nd

Box Office Projection: $900 Million

Reason: I don’t know how they keep making these films and why they always make so much money at the box office. That being said, this franchise is always able to draw big crowds both domestically and overseas. Coming off the (rather quiet) billion dollar grosser of Jurassic World: Dominion (which was supposed to be the final film in the franchise), Jurassic World Rebirth will see Universal try to squeeze whatever remaining dollars it has left with the Jurassic Park IP. I got nothing to say other than if it offers enough dino action and Black Widow and Blade kicking enough ass together, this should be one of the biggest hits of the year. The only question is whether or not it’s able to follow his predecessors and achieve the billion dollar mark, especially after Dominion just barely was able to accomplish that. Although if my prediction is any indication, I’m gonna go with a no on that one.

1.) Lilo & Stitch (2025)

Release Date: May 23rd

Box Office Projection: $1.1 Billion

Reason: You might be calling me crazy for putting a Disney live-action remake as not just the #1 spot but the one that will be able to achieve $1 billion at the box office. I mean, how could Disney possibly recover after Snow White (2025), right? Well, they were able to recently achieve billion dollar grossers with Inside Out 2 and Moana 2 along with a solid 700 million dollar hit in Mufasa (*insert Sonic fan punching the air). Plus, this is being sold as the cute family friendly big movie of the summer, regardless if you have seen the original animated Lilo & Stitch or not. All it needs to do is deliver exactly what it says on the cover, avoid any negative press of any sort, and give itself a good long theatrical window. Do all of that and I pretty much guarantee that this will be the #1 movie of the summer and will be yet another billion dollar grossing hit for Disney. If I end up being wrong, so be it. But if I’m not, then you can all eat cake!

As for other movies that missed the list:

  • I think Ballerina will avoid the fate of Furiosa if Keanu Reeves plays a significant role in the movie but it likely won’t make as much as the last few John Wick flicks.

  • 28 Years Later and Megan 2.0 should appeal greatly to fans of the horror genre and previous installments of their respected IPs but I can’t help but feel it will get lost in the shuffle with them being released so close to other big movies.

  • The Naked Gun will either sneak under the radar as the one standout comedy flick of the summer or be buried and forgotten like the rest of the remaining comedy genre.

  • The Bad Guys 2 will certainly gain numbers during the fall if it’s able to continue the streak of perfect DreamWorks sequels but I left it off the list because it’s coming out right as the summer movie season comes to a close.

  • Freakier Friday is………a thing I guess. It might make noise for a week or two but then be completely forgotten about along with Haunted Mansion.

Top 10 Biggest Summer Movies- Box Office Predictions

AdamLeave a comment

It’s now officially May which means it’s now officially summer movie season! The time of the year where the big blockbusters of the year are front and center in movie theaters everywhere now that the kids are out of school! Because of that, I figure I’d so something that I’ve yet to do on this blog, do a list of what I believe will be the top highest grossing films of the summer!

2023 was an absolute DISASTER at the box office during the summer time! That is largely due to the massive budgets from the majority of the big movies that came out that year along with just the overall inconsistent-to-poor quality of those big movies. And considering the fact there will likely be no Barbenheimer to save the summer, 2024 will likely be just as challenging for summer movies!

Even so, I think the 2024 summer movie season will give a big indication as to whether or not Hollywood is still recovering from the post-covid era of struggling to get people’s butts into theater seats or will this be the beginning of a resurrection for summer movies! We can only cross our fingers and hope for the best!

And considering I’ve been seeing multiple people put their own predictions of the top 10 biggest summer movies in terms of profit, why not throw my own hat in the ring and do my own list of this?! Keep in mind, these are the movies that I believe will be the highest grossing of the summer, not the ones that I desperately want to be at the very top. If that were the case, then Furiosa would at least be in the top 3 and Despicable Me 4 would be dead last on this list. This is list is not a matter of anticipating or movies I think will be objective the best, this is a list of the movies that I believe will be the most to least successful in terms of the top 10 movies of the summer.

Also, this is a ranking based on box office numbers worldwide and NOT domestic. That list would be harder and more complicated for me to judge. This is how I feel the box office numbers will hold for each film WORLDWIDE. Could I be dead wrong on every single one of these? Absolutely! But hey, it’s fun to be able to make predictions, right?!

Time to jump right in and put my predictions on what I believe will be the top 10 highest grossing films of the summer!

10.) Furiosa

Release Date: May 24th

Box Office Projection: $350 Million

Reason: I have all the faith in the world that George Miller will deliver with this film but I’m just not sure it’s one that most general audience will be interested in. Despite the massive praise that Mad Max: Fury Road got back in 2015, it only made a little over 380 million dollars worldwide, with a net loss somewhere between $20-$40 million. And considering this is basically a prequel spin-off surrounding a character from Fury Road but played by a completely different actress and with no Mad Max to be found in the marketing, that doesn’t inspire much confidence for Furiosa to top or even match that. I love to be proven wrong and the cult following of Fury Road will show up to this one but I wouldn’t be surprised if this ends up being the most frustrating Hollywood flop since last year Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning, especially with the rumored film budget being over 200 million dollars! Hopefully this prevails and we get more Mad Max films from George Miller with the time we still have with him!

9.) Bad Boys Ride or Die

Release Date: June 7th

Box Office Projection: $400 Million

Reason: This is likely the summer movie I’m the most curious to see how it performs. This is a sequel to a movie that was one of the last solid hits to come out before covid hit. If it’s able to hit all the right beats just like Bad Boys For Life did, then I can see this doing similar numbers to that and perhaps even top it. The only big question is whether or not everyone has forgiven Will Smith for slapping Chris Rock on stage yet?

8.) The Fall Guy

Release Date: May 3rd

Box Office Projection: $425 Million

Reason: The first big movie of the summer is set to arrive tomorrow and I think this will largely benefit from being that first big movie of the summer. It also helps that it’s an awfully good over-the-top action flick that puts the spotlight on stunt doubles. If the word of mouth is good enough this weekend, I can definitely see this being a genuine crowd pleaser and may even make more folks demand that the Academy act a stunt category to the Oscars. I seem to be higher on this movie than most folks that I’ve seen but I think The Fall Guy will do more than fine and dandy at the box office.

7.) A Quiet Place: Day One

Release Date: June 28th

Box Office Projection: 450 Million

Reason: Coming after the first two terrific installments, this is the one main horror franchise that has left the audience more intrigued to see what happens next. The only potential downside is that this acts as a prequel to those first two films with a completely different cast and director. The big looming questions is whether or not audiences love A Quiet Place for it’s memorable characters and recognizable actors or for it’s genuine scares, set pieces, and world building. If the quality for Day One is in the same ballpark as those first two Quiet Place movies, then I can certainly see it being in the same ballpark as the first two films in terms of box office results.

6.) If

Release Date: May 17th

Box Office Projection: $475 Million

Reason: There are two main factors here that will make If a good hit at the box office. First, it will be the biggest family friendly movie to come out in May (give or take The Garfield Movie) and will have enough time to stand out as that until Inside Out 2 and Despicable Me 4 come out. Secondly, it has the star power duo of Ryan Reynolds and John Krasinski. Those two factors alone are almost certain guarantee that this movie will do bank once it comes out in the next two weeks. It likely won’t be the biggest movie of the summer starring Mr. Blake Lively but it will definitely help for him to have a summer to remember.

5.) Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Release Date: May 10th

Box Office Projection: $500 Million

Reason: The next big summer entry is set to come out in theaters next month and looks as if it will be as visually delighting and narratively compelling as it’s rebooted predecessors. Disney has been doing everything in their power to promote this film by showing off the elements that folks loved the most about the previous three films. That in of itself will guarantee a strong first weekend, especially since it’s avoiding Memorial Day competition with Furiosa and The Garfield Movie. Just like with A Quiet Place: Day One, the biggest challenge that Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes will have to overcome is make people just as invested in this new cast and crew as they were with the previous ones. If it does that, then this will likely be in the top 5 movies of the summer.

4.) Twisters

Release Date: July 19th

Box Office Projection: $600 Million

Reason: It might be a bold claim on the surface to predict this one making 600 million and being one of the biggest movies of the summer but hear me out. The original Twisters is adored by many, it has the star power of Glen Powell, coming off his great work in Top Gun: Maverick, and everyone just loves a good disaster flick. The trailers have been doing it’s best to sell audiences on exactly what they want to see out of a disaster movie and that alone will likely get plenty of folks into the theaters. I could be dead wrong in claiming this but even if this does get bad reviews, I don’t see that scaring away audiences because this is the definition of a “critic proof” movie. By that note, this will likely be the most successful “critic proof” movie since The Super Mario Bros Movie. Hopefully, the discourse over the Rotten Tomato score won’t be as insufferable.

3.) Inside Out 2

Release Date: June 14th

Box Office Projection: $750 Million

Reason: Disney has been in quite a slump as of late with their theatrically released films, especially in terms of animation. Despite all the flops released last year, Elemental had some staying power and made just enough to be guaranteed a profit, making that and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 the only Disney movies to NOT be considered a financial disappointment. And considering this is a sequel to one of the most beloved Pixar films in recent memory, Inside Out 2 will be able to do some of the best numbers with Disney Animation since 2019, especially if the reviews are stellar. The recent track record alone might prevent it from reaching the same success as the first one but if it delivers, Inside Out 2 should be able to be the most successful theatrically released Pixar film since Toy Story 4 and possibly even the most successful theatrically released Disney film overall since Frozen 2.

2.) Deadpool & Wolverine

Release Date: July 26th

Box Office Projection: $900 Million

Reason: Many folks have claimed this will be a guarantee billion dollar hit but I think everyone needs to come back to reality for a moment. After many big movies underperformed last year, including two MCU installments, we might need to pump the breaks on such bold claims. As much as Deadpool & Wolverine is one of the most anticipated movies of the year and will likely be one of the biggest movies of the summer, that’s won’t guarantee 7 digits as prior big Marvel movies did. The R-rating alone (A reminder that there has been only ONE film to ever make a billion dollars!) along with the inconsistent quality of recent Marvel movies/shows will likely prevent it from reaching that billion dollar mark, with audiences still needing more consistent quality Marvel flicks to be fully won back. The promise of seeing Huge Jackman as Wolverine once again in yellow spandex, the buddy-cop routine with him and Ryan Reynolds’ Deadpool, and the absolute guarantee of multiple easter eggs, cameos, and fan service will make Deadpool & Wolverine one of the biggest movies of the summer almost certainly. When it comes to if it will be the first Marvel movie since Spider-Man: No Way Home to make a billion dollars, that more than remains to be seen in my eyes.

1.) Despicable Me 4

Release Date: July 3rd

Box Office Projection: $1.1 Billion

Reason: I don’t understand the appeal of these movies and I likely never will but one thing is certain though, this franchise certainly has an audience. Coming off a third entry that made a billion dollars and a second Minions movie that almost made a billion dollars, there is no reason to believe that Despicable Me 4 won’t be in that exact same territory in terms of box office success. Whether you like or hate them, Illumination Animation certainly knows how to get kids and families to theaters with their films and this will certainly be no exception. As I said before, the quality of any of these films is irrelevant and I highly doubt any kind of negative reviews will impact the box office results here. If I had to pick one big movie that is the saftest bet to make a billion dollars and be the highest grossing movie of the summer, it would be Despicable Me 4. I wish that was not the case but hey, there are plenty of folks out there that do. So, what do I now?

Other notes:

As for the other movies that got let off the list!

  • The Garfield Movie nearly came close to topping Furiosa the 10th spot but unless it’s able to make noise at Memorial Day, I can see this being shipped to digital really quickly. It might do enough for a profit but not Hotel Transylvania and Spider-Verse numbers.

  • Alien: Romulus looks like a return to traditional roots for the series in the form of Prey but it will likely have to pay for the sins of Prometheus and Alien: Covenant (Damn you, Ridley Scott!).

  • The Bikeriders seems fun but won’t leave much impact until it hits streaming service like it originally was suppose to.

  • Horizon: An American Saga could likely come and go depending on it’s quality.

  • And if the trailers for Borderlands is anything to go by, this will likely be one of the biggest bombs of the summer. Why, Eli Roth?! Just why?!

Is The Theatrical Experience Dead?

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There was a time when you went to cinema to see the next big blockbuster, it didn’t just feel like you were in for a new movie, it felt like you were in for a new experience. Whether you loved the movie or hated it, there was a magical feeling of being in the cinema for the next big movie with a sold out crowd on opening night or weekend. I will never forget the experience of watching Avengers: Infinity War and Endgame on the very first night with the crowd being on cloud nine the whole way through. To experience all the laughs, cheers, excitement, and even tears to come from the crowd was something truly special and will always be a lasting memory for me! However, as we approach the end of 2023 and see where cinema is in it’s current state, there is a strong argument to be made about how the magic of watching films in cinema is long gone.

To say that 2023 has been a brutal year for Hollywood and cinema would be an understatement. Not only with the handful of strikes that have gone on for the majority of the year but the way that new franchise installments have underperformed vastly and bombed spectacularly at the box office. It’s not only in terms of flicks involving Disney and superheroes like the media has made it out to be but almost every notable franchise out there minus a few exceptions. And it’s not only one or two specific reasons that stand out for these movies tanking but there are MULTIPLE factors here. Multiple factors that honestly has been years in the making!

Because of that, let’s go over ever single logical factor here! Every single concrete reason as to why cinema is in the state that is in right now and why major changes need to happening if cinema will continue to evolve in the comfort of movie theaters everywhere!

The Covid-19 Pandemic

The Covid-19 pandemic changed the lives of every single life form on planet Earth. A worldwide plague that forced everyone to quarantine for the majority of 2020 along with parts of 2021 and 2022. Because of that, entertainment around the world was put on hold. Theaters were closed, films were delayed, and productions of basically all forms of entertainment were put on hold. Coming right after a massive year of the box office in 2019, where there were NINE films that grossed over a billion dollars worldwide (SEVEN of them disturbed by Disney), this could not have occurred at a worse time for Hollywood.

This led to many of the big movies that were to come out in 2020 and 2021 being sent to streaming with some occasional theater showings for some of them. With over half the theaters around the country being closed and streaming services being more popular than ever, of course most chose to stay at home and watching the upcoming movies on streaming services. However, that line of thinking of just waiting to watch movies in the comfort of your own homes has clearly played an impact on the way movie goers chose to watch films in the 2020s.

With a handful of exceptions, most new franchise installments that always tended to make a guarantee profit have underperformed or bombed in this post-Covid timeline. A large reason for that has to do with the fact that most audiences would rather wait for new movies to be able for digital or streaming services then shelling a few extras bucks on concessions and theater seats when new movies come out in cinema. The theatrical experiences for most big movies nowadays is just not worth it in the eyes of the consumer.

Strikes-a-palooza

2023 was a year that was litter with strikes going on in Hollywood, with some that either is still happening or most likely to happen soon. You have the writers strike that lasted for nearly five months, you have the actors strike that lasted for four months, there’s a strike going on at the moment with the VFX artists from Disney and Marvel, and if reports are to believe, you can bet that a strike within the gaming and animation industry is likely to occur sooner rather than later.

The strikes involving the writers and actors caused a halt in production of films along with the promotion and marketing of upcoming films being practically non-existent. This caused films like Dune: Part Two to be delayed and films that have been released during it such as The Marvels to suffer severely at the box office. While we might not have felt the direct impact of upcoming films in production that were halted because of the strike, we will certainly feel it in the next two to three years. Just as we all felt the impact of the previous writers strike with films that came out in 2009 or 2010. If the impact wave of Covid is about over, a brand new wave involving all the strikes is about to come. Surfs up!

Too Many Mid-icore Movies

While the other two reasons mentioned is a great argument of the amount of money studios spend on their movies and the amount of moment audience will spend to watch them, maybe the big reason as to do with the actual quality of the motion picture. Maybe it has to do with audience no longer wearing their rose-colored glasses and seeing how it’s become quantity over quality for a lot of franchises right there. Movies that just exist for the sake of existing and not because it’s something the audience actually want to see.

That would explain greatly how films like Barbie, Oppenheimer, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse have been the most notable successes at box office in 2023. Not just because they were names from a familiar brand but because of the strong impact they had on mainstream audiences which led to repeat theater viewings and strong worth of mouth. While not quite the most successful films of all time, it was able to exceed expectations, and possibly even surpass them due to how good those movies actually were. The same thing can’t be said about the other big movies that came out in 2023.

Fast X was seen as more of the same, over-the-top nonsense that has become accustomed to this franchise at this point. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts was seen as a passable if not disposable entry for a franchise that is still dealing with the aftermath of the overblown Bayformers flicks. The Flash was seen as a ugly CGI mess made solely for course correcting and the hope that having Michael Keaton back as Batman along with Sasha Calle’s Supergirl would be enough to overcome any shortcomings. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny was seen as an unnecessary and forgettable finale to a series that already had two definite finales beforehand. The Marvels, Shazam: Fury of the Gods, and Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom might have been considered “good enough” when superhero movies still felt like events but not in the year 2023. And Wish was seen as lackluster of an 100th year anniversary film for Disney that you could possibly imagine. While two or three of these might be enough to guarantee a solid three out of four stars ratings, they all did not receive the best reviews or the strongest word of mouth to make any of these worth buying a ticket for. Because of that, they were not able to make their money back or break even.

Even Good Movies Are Bombing

I’m sure most of you reading this thinks that the easy solution would be just to make better films and more people will be more eager to see them in theaters. While there have definitely been films this year that have accomplished just that, there have been other notable critically successful films that suffered at the box office regardless of it’s high quality.

These include the likes of Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves, Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning- Part 1, Blue Beetle, and Killers of the Flower Moon. All four of these films were ones that gained mostly very good reviews from critics and received a certified fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes but still lost money. While plenty will argue it had to do with awkward release dates or going ridiculously overbudget, it still doesn’t change the fact that these were all very good films in the eyes of critics and folks that went to see them but still underperformed or flopped at the box office.

This just goes to show you that even films that are well-acclaimed are not guarantee to be box office hits either. Sometimes a movie bombing has nothing to do with it’s overall quality, it’s that audience didn’t have the interest or knowledge of it’s existence to check them out while it was playing in theaters. There are plenty of good to great films in recent memory in the past that have been guilty of that: Dredd, Edge of Tomorrow, The Nice Guys, Blade Runner 2049, Annihilation, and Doctor Sleep just to name a few. While I’m sure all four of the 2023 films mentioned will find or already has found it’s audience through digital or physical media, the fact they were unable to gain them at the time it came out in theaters goes to show how even well quality films have suffered from other dire consequences.

Overbudgeting At It’s Finest

This is the one that everyone and their mother has pointed out but it’s certainly worth pointing out again. The amount of money that is being spend on these big movies is beyond ridiculous. Going past the traditional of $150 to $200 million budgets to big blockbusters in favor of now $250 to $300 million budgets. You have Elemental and Wish costing $200 million to make, The Flash costing $220 million to make, The Marvels costing $275 million to make, Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning- Part 1 cost $291 million to make, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny costing $300 million to make, and even Fast X costing $340 million to make. And that’s not even including the amount of money that was spent on trailers and marketing which you could add at least a few more million with. The overconfidence in box office has certainly been Hollywood’s weakness throughout the entirety of 2023.

I’m sure many people will point out how the larger budgets may have to do with Covid-19 halting many of these projects while they were in development but that doesn’t excuse how others movies released this year which made either just as much, more, or even less than any of the big movies were able to be a financial hit. You have John Wick: Chapter 4 which made a franchise record, 432 million worldwide, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse making over 600 million worldwide, which is a record for Sony Animation, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 making over 800 million worldwide, and The Super Mario Bros Movie making over 1.3 billion worldwide.

When looking at the movies mentioned from this year, only Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 was able to have a budget over 200 million dollars and was able to be a financial success. The rest of the movies either underperformed or flat out bombed at the box office. It makes you wonder how in the world movies such as The Super Mario Bros. Movie and Across the Spider-Verse were able to have a cheaper budget than Elemental despite having more impressive animation and more well known celebrities in the cast. Even so, it goes to show you how easy it is to make back your money on movies if you keep your expectations and budget in check without going too overboard.

If a movie making half or 3/4 of a billion dollars is considered underperforming, the studios need to take a good, hard look at themselves and figure out what has allowed that to happen. If you need to make at or near a billion for your big movie to make a profit, then that just speaks volume how little connection you have with yourself or the general public. Even if Covid was a factor in some extra money being spent, that can’t be the only factor to do it.

It must be no coincidence that the three highest grossing films of the year in Barbie, Mario, and Oppenheimer were all films that only cost 145 million or less. Take a hint, Hollywood!

Theater and Concession Prices Are Ridiculous

Is it me or has the prices for movie tickets and concessions skyrocketed quite a bit to the point of insanity? No matter what time or day it is, it seems like movie tickets nowadays cost a total of at least 12 to 15 dollars with 15 to 20 dollars involving food and beverage. That’s at least 25 to 35 dollars spent on one night at the movies, possibly more if you are going with friends or family members. That is just insane!

While there are certain theater companies out there that offer paid monthly subscriptions that helps save money with going to the movies such as Regal, not all theater companies are like that. At best, you will get a five or ten dollar discount after spending 50 to 100 dollars worth on your local theater and that’s basically it. And if you don’t find yourself using any of those subscriptions, that’s just a few extra bucks you got to fork over just for one or two times at the cinema.

Whether this is due to Covid-19 or the power of inflation, the increase of price in tickets and concessions has to play an effect on the way audience select the upcoming blockbusters they want to see. The movie going experience is more expense now than ever before, almost approaching the level of the expenses of gaming and sporting events. Because of that, it’s obvious the mainstream audience are mostly picking and choosing at random which movies they want to see on the big screen and which ones they would rather wait to watch in the comfort of their own homes. They’ll go see their Barbie and Oppenheimer but they will likely rather wait for The Marvels and Killers of the Flower Moon to come to streaming.

Maybe, just maybe, if theaters and cinema would have the urge to lower the prices on tickets and concessions or offer more events like Cinema Day, perhaps folks might be more willing to check films out in cinema when they arrive on the big screen.

Movies Are No Longer Events

To repeat what I said at the start of this article, remember when going to a movie of a big franchise felt like a cinematic event? Almost as if you are about to witness a moment in history you would be eager to tell your kids and grandkids many years later down the road? Is it me or has the movie theater experience lacked that hype and event feeling at least since 2020 rolled around?

There have been exceptions of course. You have the likes of Spider-Man: No Way Home, Top Gun: Maverick, Avatar: Way of Water, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Barbie, and Oppenheimer that were able to achieve that cinematic feeling for most moviegoers out there. But, those are really only exceptions compared to other franchise films that have come out since then. Instead of the feeling you are about to watch the cinematic equivealant of the World Series in theaters, it now feels like you are watching the cinematic equivalent of a Spring Training game.

When I saw The Marvels and The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes in theaters, the things that took me off guard the most when watching them was how uncinematic it felt watching those in theaters, especially compared to the series prior installments. I remember theaters being mostly packed when I saw the first Captain Marvel and the other Hunger Games films when I saw them in theaters, with the feeling that the hype and anticipation of so many folks was about to pay off. When I saw the newest installment of Captain Marvel and Hunger Games, I can only count on hand about eight to ten other folks with me in the theaters, which made about less than a quarter of the whole theater. If that’s not a sign how far the feeling of being in a movie theater has fallen, then I don’t know what is.

I could also give other examples, most recently with Aquaman: The Lost Kingdom set to be an absolute bomb despite the first film being the highest grossing DC film of all time, but the examples I just mentioned really gave me that depressing feeling about how the theater experience isn’t the same anymore and likely never will be.

This is likely because of how most franchise installments nowadays don’t feel like events anymore. Whether that’s due to Covid-19 or being oversaturated with them or just the overall declining quality with most of them, they just don’t feel as grand or rewarding as they used to be. Because of that, what’s the point of going to theaters anymore when you can just wait a couple of months to watch them in your own homes where you will save yourself extra cash? It’s like they said, vote with your wallet and that’s what many moviegoers have done since the pandemic rolled around.

How To Fix This?

There has been plenty of discussions going around on what Hollywood needs to do to fix their current problems. I’ll tell you right now that there is no simple solution to fix all of this. They have dug themselves into massive hole that it will take years to come even close to climbing out of it. If I were to give a simple bit of advice, it’s to probably go back to the “old school” ways of making films.

Don’t feel the need to go overbudget, don’t overthink every single bit of detail, don’t needlessly overwork your VFX artists, use every old fashioned camera trick and editing technique in the book, work at a reasonable time and pace, and most importantingly, make them all feel like films that deserve to be seen in movie theaters. Also, lowering the prices on tickets and concessions would help as well!

Of course, this won’t solve every single problem that Hollywood is currently having, especially with the amount of strikes that are likely gonna occur in the future, but at least it would give a reason as to why the theatrical experience should still be a thing in the year 2023 and onwards. Why going out to theaters to see the newest blockbuster when it comes out is important instead of just waiting a few extra months to watch on streaming or demand!

All of those things and much more need to happen if the theatrical experience is to thrive in the future. Otherwise, streaming and digital media will be the absolute future with no need for theaters and physical media.

Thanks a lot, Trolls: World Tours! You destroyed cinema!